By counting I mean breaking a tie since that is the only time in a
secret ballot that a single vote will count. Set aside local
offices in small towns and counties. What are the odds of a single
vote counting for governor in CA or US senator. What are the odds of
a single vote counting in Ohio or Florida for president? What are the
odds of a single vote counting for a US House seat? Now in the odds
don't forget voting
fraud.
Ok now that you have fiqured in the odds of a single vote
breaking a tie and fiquring fiquring in voting fraud in the area, now
fiqure out what are the odds of the politican in office actually
making a diffrence in relation to a single voters
perference.
Kenneith Arrow's immpossiblity theorm says there is no
general way to aggreagate individual level preference to collective
level perference, Arrows theorm appears to also conclude that in fact
we do not have majority rule ( at least the representive type) but we
may only have election cycles and no general
majority.
Anthony Downs suggested that politicans tended to cater to the
median voter, Downs also said voters in general may have no rational
reason for voting, the postive impact is so little that any cost such
as bad weather, a line may be to may trump any direct benfit for the
voter. Mancur Olson a Public Choice Theory concludes in The Logic of
Collective
Action.
Down also concluded that individuals in general have no rational
incentive to learn enough to be able to vote their interest
intelligently.
What is a bit clearer is I think it is pretty safe to vote for a
third party in say a presidential race or a major state race because
the odds of your single vote making a difference is so low it will
not make a diffrence for the two main parties anyway.
Just do a google search on the odds of voting, lots of
work out there.
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