That Lincoln is unlikely to grow much in years to come is very true, if for no other reason than there is very little land left for new construction. Most of the larger lots that are left in private hands have conservation or wetland restrictions that will prevent their subdivision into smaller lots.
- Allen > On May 29, 2022, at 13:44, Fuat Koro <[email protected]> wrote: > > As it relates to population growth, it's worth noting that 2020-2040 (the > planning horizon for new housing) will likely be different from 2000-2020 > (the data we've been referencing). The Boston Metro area -- which is the > ecosystem we're part of -- will likely grow slower. We flatlined in the last > two years due to the pandemic. Moving forward, growth may not recover given > the secular downward trend in population growth and Boston metro not having > breakaway performance like Austin based on domestic migration. > > Here's Boston's metro's annualized rate. (It looks more like a CAGR > computation off of the 10-year census data) > > https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/22939/boston/population > <https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/22939/boston/population> > On Thu, May 26, 2022 at 8:15 PM Allen Vander Meulen <[email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: > Rachel: > > Your 2010 / 2020 delta (489) is pretty darn close to the estimate Margaret > Olson provided (407) for the impact of The Commons and Oriole Landing upon > Lincoln’s population. Most of the remainder can be explained by Lincoln’s > growth rate in recent years. (As a rule of thumb, the Housing Commission > estimates Lincoln's growth averages around 100 new housing units - of all > types - per decade.) > > The only specific HAFB exclusion I am aware of is the exclusion of HAFB base > housing from the Massachusetts Department of Housing & Community > Development’s (DHCD’s) official Subsidized Housing Inventory, which is used > to calculate our “Subsidized Housing Percentage” (SHI%). > > The SHI percentage, as many Lincolnites know, must remain above 10% if we are > to ensure that all potential builders must adhere to our local zoning bylaws. > (Otherwise, they only have to conform to the state’s much more lenient > zoning requirements when building developments that contain affordable > housing, a lesson some of our neighboring communities have painfully learned.) > > This exclusion makes sense, given that Lincoln does not control what the > Federal Government does with the base housing there. > > - Allen > >> On May 25, 2022, at 09:40, Rachel Drew <[email protected] >> <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: >> >> Allen's figures do include HAFB. Putting aside the important question of >> why/whether we should consider residents there members of our community >> (!!), the numbers for Lincoln excluding HAFB are not so easy to come by - >> the Census Bureau changes how it draws various administrative geographies >> with each Decennial Census, so there is no consistency across decades in how >> it defines sub-town areas (for those facile with online mapping, the Census' >> TigerWeb <https://tigerweb.geo.census.gov/tigerweb2020/> program allows you >> to see how these lines change over time). >> >> That said, the best approximation I could do came up with the following: >> >> 2010: 5,076 (using 2010 Census tract 3602) >> 2020: 5,565 (using block groups 1-4 of 2020 Census tract 3603) >> delta: 489, or +9.6% >> >> Rachel Drew (who studies housing markets professionally and knows a thing or >> two about Census data). >> >> -- >> The LincolnTalk mailing list. >> To post, send mail to [email protected] >> <mailto:[email protected]>. >> Search the archives at http://lincoln.2330058.n4.nabble.com/ >> <http://lincoln.2330058.n4.nabble.com/>. >> Browse the archives at https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/private/lincoln/ >> <https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/private/lincoln/>. >> Change your subscription settings at >> https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/lincoln >> <https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/lincoln>. >> > > -- > The LincolnTalk mailing list. > To post, send mail to [email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]>. > Search the archives at http://lincoln.2330058.n4.nabble.com/ > <http://lincoln.2330058.n4.nabble.com/>. > Browse the archives at https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/private/lincoln/ > <https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/private/lincoln/>. > Change your subscription settings at > https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/lincoln > <https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/lincoln>. >
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