I think that's where we get into the dichotomy as it relates to new housing. Specifically:
*Lincoln wants to maintain its "distinct" rural character and not pursue new development beyond meeting the "letter" of the SHI requirement by meeting the 10% minimum. * vs. *Lincoln zoning/land use has "artificially" kept the town's population density low and has effectively led to exclusionary practices compared to other towns in MA. * I think the latter is essentially what the twitter thread was arguing for. On Sun, May 29, 2022 at 7:12 PM Allen Vander Meulen <[email protected]> wrote: > That Lincoln is unlikely to grow much in years to come is very true, if > for no other reason than there is very little land left for new > construction. Most of the larger lots that are left in private hands have > conservation or wetland restrictions that will prevent their subdivision > into smaller lots. > > - Allen > > On May 29, 2022, at 13:44, Fuat Koro <[email protected]> wrote: > > As it relates to population growth, it's worth noting that 2020-2040 (the > planning horizon for new housing) will likely be different from 2000-2020 > (the data we've been referencing). The Boston Metro area -- which is the > ecosystem we're part of -- will likely grow slower. We flatlined in the > last two years due to the pandemic. Moving forward, growth may not recover > given the secular downward trend in population growth and Boston metro not > having breakaway performance like Austin based on domestic migration. > > Here's Boston's metro's annualized rate. (It looks more like a CAGR > computation off of the 10-year census data) > > https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/22939/boston/population > > On Thu, May 26, 2022 at 8:15 PM Allen Vander Meulen < > [email protected]> wrote: > >> Rachel: >> >> Your 2010 / 2020 delta (489) is pretty darn close to the estimate >> Margaret Olson provided (407) for the impact of The Commons and Oriole >> Landing upon Lincoln’s population. Most of the remainder can be explained >> by Lincoln’s growth rate in recent years. (As a rule of thumb, the Housing >> Commission estimates Lincoln's growth averages around 100 new housing units >> - of all types - per decade.) >> >> The only specific HAFB exclusion I am aware of is the exclusion of HAFB >> base housing from the Massachusetts Department of Housing & Community >> Development’s (DHCD’s) official Subsidized Housing Inventory, which is used >> to calculate our “Subsidized Housing Percentage” (SHI%). >> >> The SHI percentage, as many Lincolnites know, must remain above 10% if we >> are to ensure that all potential builders must adhere to our local zoning >> bylaws. (Otherwise, they only have to conform to the state’s much more >> lenient zoning requirements when building developments that contain >> affordable housing, a lesson some of our neighboring communities have >> painfully learned.) >> >> This exclusion makes sense, given that Lincoln does not control what the >> Federal Government does with the base housing there. >> >> - Allen >> >> On May 25, 2022, at 09:40, Rachel Drew <[email protected]> wrote: >> >> Allen's figures do include HAFB. Putting aside the important question of >> why/whether we should consider residents there members of our community >> (!!), the numbers for Lincoln excluding HAFB are not so easy to come by - >> the Census Bureau changes how it draws various administrative geographies >> with each Decennial Census, so there is no consistency across decades in >> how it defines sub-town areas (for those facile with online mapping, the >> Census' >> TigerWeb <https://tigerweb.geo.census.gov/tigerweb2020/> program allows >> you to see how these lines change over time). >> >> That said, the best approximation I could do came up with the following: >> >> 2010: 5,076 (using 2010 Census tract 3602) >> 2020: 5,565 (using block groups 1-4 of 2020 Census tract 3603) >> delta: 489, or +9.6% >> >> Rachel Drew (who studies housing markets professionally and knows a thing >> or two about Census data). >> >> -- >> The LincolnTalk mailing list. >> To post, send mail to [email protected]. >> Search the archives at http://lincoln.2330058.n4.nabble.com/. >> Browse the archives at >> https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/private/lincoln/. >> Change your subscription settings at >> https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/lincoln. >> >> >> -- >> The LincolnTalk mailing list. >> To post, send mail to [email protected]. >> Search the archives at http://lincoln.2330058.n4.nabble.com/. >> Browse the archives at >> https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/private/lincoln/. >> Change your subscription settings at >> https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/lincoln. >> >> >
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