Except that luxury housing *does* free up other housing. The article I linked earlier ( https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094119022001048#bib0015) empirically shows that with data. And this makes intuitive sense too. If I'm in the market for a home and have $1 million to spend, I'd rather have a newer, more luxurious condo, but if an older, less nice unit is all that's available, I'll take that lesser unit, driving up its price.
-Nick Gardner On Mon, Oct 13, 2025 at 7:37 PM Sara Mattes <[email protected]> wrote: > Perhaps Lincoln and other places can step up with more true affordability? > Luxury CIVCO condos at the Mall and at Panetta/ Farrington are not going > to free up other housing for low or moderate income folks. > > (Btw- the article link is behind a paywall) > Sent from my iPad > > On Oct 13, 2025, at 4:59 PM, Margaret Olson <[email protected]> wrote: > > > I’m wondering why you think the laws of supply and demand do not apply to > housing? > > When there is a very significant housing shortage (as there is now in > Massachusetts) you do need a significant increase in supply before the > people on the lower end of the economic scale see any relief. So long as > there are far more people looking for housing than there are units > available, competition drives prices upward—whether in rent or purchase > prices. When housing construction increases substantially the pressure on > rents at the high and middle ends of the market begins to ease. See > https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0094119021000656 > > The housing crisis doesn’t mean supply and demand have stopped > functioning—it means the imbalance is so large that it takes a substantial > increase in supply before its benefits reach everyone. > Margaret > > On Mon, Oct 13, 2025 at 4:37 PM Ruth Ann Hendrickson < > [email protected]> wrote: > >> I agree with Sarah. If you open up a parcel of land for housing, >> developers, want to make their maximum profitability for that piece of >> land, and that means high-end condos. >> >> Ruth Ann >> (She, her, hers) >> >> On Oct 13, 2025, at 3:44 PM, Sara Mattes <[email protected]> wrote: >> >> The free market principles of supply and demand, in housing, don’t work >> for lower income and even moderate income folks. >> That is why we have 40b- the stick- and the carrots of public subsidies >> of housing and public housing. >> Re-zoning, without strict demands to produce a true mix, leaves many out >> in the cold. >> The current push for rezone in MA/ “transit oriented development “ is a >> boom, a gift to for profit developers and a bust for low- and moderate >> income families. >> The MBTA/ rezoning stripped towns like Lincoln from enforcing existing >> affordability requirements and have handed a great gift to for- profit >> developers. >> Let’s keep our eye on the Mall as the die is cast. >> >> >> Sent from my iPad >> >> On Oct 13, 2025, at 8:13 AM, Nick Gardner <[email protected]> wrote: >> >> >> I think the best way to understand it is simply supply and demand. The >> supply for housing simply has not gone up at the same rate as demand. (1) >> In general, economists agree that the solution is relatively simple, build >> more. Ideally we'd build a good mix of housing from new single family >> homes, to projects with a high percentage of affordable units, to market >> rate "luxury" apartments. But even if we only built market rate "luxury" >> apartments, studies have shown that the availability of new market rate >> housing results in moving chains that serve to relatively quickly relieve >> pressure on other segments of the market (2). Happy to discuss the >> economics of this more if people would like, it's an area I've spent a lot >> of time in over the last few years. >> >> Thanks, >> >> Nick Gardner >> >> >> 1: >> https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/new-england-public-policy-center-policy-report/2025/new-englands-housing-markets-supply-and-demand-factors-affecting-housing-prices-across-the-region.aspx >> 2: >> https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094119022001048#bib0015 >> >> Note: I put luxury in quotes, because a lot of the new market rate >> housing isn't really high end, it's just newer. The same way that a 2010 >> Prius is cheaper than a 2025 one, housing has some level of depreciation >> relative to the broader market. Any new build, with brand new appliances, >> updated layouts, modern amenities, is simply going to be able to charge >> more, even if it's not actually luxury. A lot of the "luxury" touches tend >> to be things like LVP flooring and basic stainless steel appliances. >> >> On Mon, Oct 13, 2025 at 12:18 AM Sara Mattes <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> Trickle down economics? >>> Sent from my iPad >>> >>> On Oct 12, 2025, at 8:59 PM, Nick Gardner <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >>> >>> > But, we need to understand what the market is seeking. >>> >>> The free market is usually pretty good at that. Developers tend to build >>> properties because they will make money. >>> >>> > Do families want to move to a town like Lincoln to live in multistory >>> units? >>> >>> Probably! But developers tend to do that sort of research before >>> spending millions on a new development. >>> >>> > Many families, in order to have more of the traditional single family >>> home, are moving further and further out. >>> It is not just cost, but what is seen as desirable. >>> Can we better explore the type of units that will meet wants and needs, >>> and not just numbers. >>> >>> The issue is simply that single family houses take up a lot of land, and >>> land plus transport are the true determining factors here. I can't get a >>> single family home in manhattan because there simply isn't the land for it. >>> As the population of the greater Boston area goes up, there will be less >>> and less places close to Boston that can sustain affordable single family >>> detached homes on sizable lots. >>> >>> > I look at Denver that has built many, many multi-story units that are >>> going vacant, while families push further and further away from the city. >>> The urban sprawl is stressing municipal services and water resources. >>> >>> Great thing about multi-family homes is that they put much less stress >>> on things like water resources and municipal services than new single >>> family home developments do. I'm not worried about vacant housing right >>> now, given how big of a housing crisis there is in the area. Plus, new >>> developments pay large amounts of fees and property taxes towards >>> maintaining and upgrading aging municipal services. >>> >>> Simply put, there's only so much land within a decent transit or drive >>> of Boston/Cambridge, where many people have jobs they need to get to. So >>> this constrains how far away people will live, and we just need to build >>> more housing. The best way to do that is to build housing across the whole >>> spectrum. More multi-family multi-story developments, more rowhomes, more >>> ADUs, more splitting of lots to build second homes on the lot, and more >>> development of vacant lots. Ideally some of those units will be affordable >>> by design, but the best path towards affordability is simply more housing, >>> however we can get it. >>> >>> -Nick Gardner >>> >>> On Sun, Oct 12, 2025 at 8:46 PM Sara Mattes <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >>>> Yes! >>>> But, we need to understand what the market is seeking. >>>> Do families want to move to a town like Lincoln to live in multistory >>>> units? >>>> We don’t know. >>>> Many families, in order to have more of the traditional single family >>>> home, are moving further and further out. >>>> It is not just cost, but what is seen as desirable. >>>> Can we better explore the type of units that will meet wants and needs, >>>> and not just numbers. >>>> >>>> I look at Denver that has built many, many multi-story units that are >>>> going vacant, while families push further and further away from the city. >>>> The urban sprawl is stressing municipal services and water resources. >>>> >>>> How do meet desire with creativity? >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> On Oct 12, 2025, at 6:52 PM, Nick Gardner <[email protected]> wrote: >>>> >>>> Personally, sure, I wouldn't mind something like this near me. My >>>> general philosophy is that more housing is better, from the cheapest >>>> options like manufactured and mobile homes, all the way up to multi-story >>>> single family developments. More building across the spectrum is the only >>>> true way to solve the housing crisis (but much better transit would help >>>> too!). >>>> >>>> -Nick Gardner >>>> >>>> On Sun, Oct 12, 2025 at 6:41 PM Sara Mattes <[email protected]> wrote: >>>> >>>>> Would Lincoln entertain seeking locations for these truly affordable >>>>> options? >>>>> >>>>> <541897041_615991624727882_3364590991054878389_n.jpg> >>>>> >>>>> 38' Park Model <https://www.facebook.com/share/17UXVB9fPC/> >>>>> facebook.com <https://www.facebook.com/share/17UXVB9fPC/> >>>>> <https://www.facebook.com/share/17UXVB9fPC/> >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> The LincolnTalk mailing list. >>>>> To post, send mail to [email protected]. >>>>> Browse the archives at >>>>> https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/private/lincoln/. >>>>> Change your subscription settings at >>>>> https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/lincoln. >>>>> >>>>> >>>> -- >> The LincolnTalk mailing list. >> To post, send mail to [email protected]. >> Browse the archives at >> https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/private/lincoln/. >> Change your subscription settings at >> https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/lincoln. >> >> -- >> The LincolnTalk mailing list. >> To post, send mail to [email protected]. >> Browse the archives at >> https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/private/lincoln/. >> Change your subscription settings at >> https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/lincoln. >> >> -- > The LincolnTalk mailing list. > To post, send mail to [email protected]. > Browse the archives at https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/private/lincoln/ > . > Change your subscription settings at > https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/lincoln. > >
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