On 2021-05-01 10:07, Roger Clarke wrote: > On 1/5/21 9:54 am, [email protected] wrote: >> ... [Successful antivirals] could revolutionise medicine. > Not only medicine. > > The sci-fi world has presumably 'modelled' a world in which far more people > survive much longer. > > Population-counts explode? > Population-densities explode? > Pressure on raw materials is exacerbated, esp. fresh, clean water?
In most developed countries the birth rate decreases as education & general prosperity improves. In Australia the total fertility rate for 2019 was 1.657 (births per woman) and the nett reproduction rate was 0.797 (the average number of daughters surviving to reproductive age per woman) - see https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/births-australia/2019 The ABS notes: ----------------- Total fertility rate The total fertility rate required for replacement is currently considered to be around 2.1 babies per woman to replace herself and her partner. Australia's total fertility rate: o was 1.66 babies per woman in 2019, decreasing from 1.97 babies per woman since 2009 o has been below replacement since 1976. ----------------- That's why the pollies are so anxious to haul in migrants - we need economic GROWTH don't we? But there will come a time when every country wants migrants for the same reason, and then I presume it will all screech to a halt. Some put their faith in robots but that only creates massive inequality and social unrest, and not enough people can afford to buy the robots' output anyway. A human's basic needs are really simple. And as Peter Martin points out, the holy grail of "productivity" requires each worker to produce more saleable value, measured in hours worked, than the time they took to create that value. But there has been a big shift in work patterns from manufacturing useful stuff to services and, by definition, that creates no excess value at all. Throw in sea-level rise, huge levels of debt resulting from low interest rates, and another pandemic, and we have the makings of a general collapse. Any theories about how governments would cope? Cheers! David Lochrin _______________________________________________ Link mailing list [email protected] https://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
