This recent study, financed by NASA, found that because of financial inequality
and environmental problems, the industrial world could suffer “a precipitous
collapse” within decades.
http://www.sesync.org/sites/default/files/resources/motesharrei-rivas-kalnay.pdf
March 19, 2014
Abstract
There are widespread concerns that current trends in resource-use are
unsustainable, butpossibilities of overshoot/collapse remain controversial.
Collapses have occurred frequently inhistory, often followed by centuries of
economic, intellectual, and population decline. Manydiff erent natural and
social phenomena have been invoked to explain specifi c collapses, but ageneral
explanation remains elusive.
In this paper, we build a human population dynamics model by adding
accumulatedwealth and economic inequality to a predator-prey model of humans
and nature. The modelstructure, and simulated scenarios that o er signifi cant
implications, are explained. Fourequations describe the evolution of Elites,
Commoners, Nature, and Wealth. The modelshows Economic Strati cation or
Ecological Strain can independently lead to collapse, inagreement with the
historical record.
The measure "Carrying Capacity" is developed and its estimation is shown to be
a practical means for early detection of a collapse. Mechanisms leading to two
types of collapses arediscussed.
The new dynamics of this model can also reproduce the irreversible collapses
foundin history.
Collapse can be avoided, and population can reach a steady state at
maximumcarrying capacity if the rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a
sustainable level and ifresources are distributed equitably.
Summary
Collapses of even advanced civilizations have occurred many times in the past
fi ve thousand years, and they were frequently followed by centuries of
population and cultural decline and economic regression. Although many di
fferent causes have been o ffered to explain individual collapses, it is
still necessary to develop a more general explanation. In this paper we attempt
to build a mathematical model to explore the essential dynamics of interaction
between population and natural resources ...
In sum, the results of our experiments indicate that either one of the two
features apparent in historical societal collapses (over-exploitation of
natural resources and strong economic strati cation) can independently result
in a complete collapse. Given economic strati cation, collapse is very
difficult to avoid and requires major policy changes, including major
reductions in inequality and population growth rates. Even in the absence of
economic strati cation, collapse can still occur if depletion per capita is too
high. However, collapse can be avoidedand population can reach equilibrium if
the per capita rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level,
and if resources are distributed in a reasonably equitable fashion. In the
upcoming generations of HANDY, we plan to develop several extensions ...
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