Cheer up, By some accounts, there'll probably be nobody around to be bothered by the collapse: <http://www.globalresearch.ca/near-term-human-extinction-a-conversation-with-guy-mcpherson/5373909>
Eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow ... On 7/04/2014 8:12 PM, Stephen Loosley wrote: > > > > This recent study, financed by NASA, found that because of financial > inequality and environmental problems, the industrial world could suffer “a > precipitous collapse” within decades. > http://www.sesync.org/sites/default/files/resources/motesharrei-rivas-kalnay.pdf > > March 19, 2014 > Abstract > There are widespread concerns that current trends in resource-use are > unsustainable, butpossibilities of overshoot/collapse remain controversial. > Collapses have occurred frequently inhistory, often followed by centuries of > economic, intellectual, and population decline. Manydiff erent natural > and social phenomena have been invoked to explain specifi c collapses, but > ageneral explanation remains elusive. > > In this paper, we build a human population dynamics model by adding > accumulatedwealth and economic inequality to a predator-prey model of humans > and nature. The modelstructure, and simulated scenarios that o er > signifi cant implications, are explained. Fourequations describe the > evolution of Elites, Commoners, Nature, and Wealth. The modelshows Economic > Strati cation or Ecological Strain can independently lead to collapse, > inagreement with the historical record. > > The measure "Carrying Capacity" is developed and its estimation is shown to > be a practical means for early detection of a collapse. Mechanisms leading to > two types of collapses arediscussed. > > The new dynamics of this model can also reproduce the irreversible collapses > foundin history. > > Collapse can be avoided, and population can reach a steady state at > maximumcarrying capacity if the rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a > sustainable level and ifresources are distributed equitably. > > Summary > > Collapses of even advanced civilizations have occurred many times in the past > fi ve thousand years, and they were frequently followed by centuries of > population and cultural decline and economic regression. Although many di > fferent causes have been o ffered to explain individual collapses, it > is still necessary to develop a more general explanation. In this paper we > attempt to build a mathematical model to explore the essential dynamics of > interaction between population and natural resources ... > > > In sum, the results of our experiments indicate that either one of the two > features apparent in historical societal collapses (over-exploitation of > natural resources and strong economic strati cation) can independently result > in a complete collapse. Given economic strati cation, collapse is very > difficult to avoid and requires major policy changes, including major > reductions in inequality and population growth rates. Even in the absence of > economic strati cation, collapse can still occur if depletion per capita is > too high. However, collapse can be avoidedand population can reach > equilibrium if the per capita rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a > sustainable level, and if resources are distributed in a reasonably equitable > fashion. In the upcoming generations of HANDY, we plan to develop several > extensions ... > -- David Boxall | "Cheer up" they said. | "Things could be worse." http://david.boxall.id.au | So I cheered up and, | Sure enough, things got worse. | --Murphy's musing _______________________________________________ Link mailing list Link@mailman.anu.edu.au http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
