On 25/09/2019 10:35 am, Roger Clarke wrote: > Models of real-world systems of large scale (many entities) and high > complexity (many inter-relationships among many entities) have > notoriously large error-factors, and have error-factors that vary > enormously depending on the circumstances and that defy attempts at > prediction.
Non-linearity rears its ugly head when it comes to predictions. It is a characteristic of non-linear systems that any errors will grow exponentially, the only question is How Quickly? Your reference to moon and Mars landings is a little off target. Engineers did what engineers always do when faced with non-linearity - they wrap the prediction system in a negative feedback loop. By definition a negative feedback loop tries to minimise the error between target state and actual state. If the target state is a moving state, then it's called goal seeking. > > A new round of AI enthusiasm is prancing its nonsense around the > world. And this one has associated with it a wave of artefact-autonomy. > > Unless we use our language very carefully, we're inviting: > (a) simplistic scientists and engineers, and feeble-minded marketers, > to over-believe and over-sell, and deliver horrible outcomes > (of which Robodebt is merely a harbinger) My experience is that "simplistic scientists and engineers, and feeble-minded marketers", get into trouble when they make predictions outside their areas of expertise. Which is why Health IT has been less than successful. Technologists do not understand the problems of healthcare but they insist on implementing their solutions. > > (b) the media and the public will put up with the nonsense for a > period of time, but public backlash will in due course wash away > the hubris, and with it not just the badly-conceived and harmful > models and artefacts, but also some that are of value to humankind Sometimes. This was published today: Why the Myth of Period Syncing Won’t Go Away https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/09/period-syncing-almost-definitely-isnt-real/598714/ "For decades, researchers have been poking holes in the study that introduced the concept of “menstrual synchrony.” Many people believe in it anyway." ... "For a phenomenon that’s highly unlikely to be real, period syncing has enjoyed an impressively long life in the popular imagination. Every now and again, news stories and listicles pop up to inform the public that no, actually, period synchronization as a result of prolonged proximity is not a thing, but the fictional story lines and offhand jokes persist nonetheless." How does all this relate to non-linearity? Sometimes you only have to be a little bit wrong to totally stuff things up. -- Regards brd Bernard Robertson-Dunn Canberra Australia email: [email protected] _______________________________________________ Link mailing list [email protected] http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
