Alfred Urrutia wrote:
How so? You can't state something will or will not happen when nothing
in that path has started yet. We have piloted machines (planes, cars,
ships) and we have limbed machines (robots). What we don't have *yet*
is piloted limbed machines. Will we? I have no idea. Neither do you.
This conversation isn't going anywhere. I won't continue it. But I
will give you one "satisfaction" if you want.
I predict, in fact, I bet that within 10 years (more likely 5), a
piloted Gundam mecha, biped walking and V-fin and all, will be
produced and demonstrated. Most likely from Japan, but S. Korea and
Taiwan have a shot at beating Japan to the punch. I'd put it at >10%
odds that Bandai will be the producer or at least the financial
backer. But I'd guess that otaku fans could well do it on their own.
I'd put it at >50% odds that the mech will be 5m or shorter, but I
won't be too surprised if it's up to 10m tall.
The technology needed to build a humanoid, human-piloted robot has
been available... for... hmm... 15-30 years?
Walking with some degree of stability, speed and grace is more recent
development but it seems it has already trickled out of academia into
hobby status. At least according to a hobby robotics mag I found at
Kunokuniya bookstore. I was pleasantly surprised that's it's already
at issue 48. A 30-50cm fully humanoid robot kit (or assembled) sets
you back only 500,000 Yens or so. Scaling it up to 5m, cranking up
the horsepower to carry a human pilot, shouldn't cost more than 100x
that. Call it half a million US dollar; well within reach of a single
dotcom millionaire. By 2017, the original First Gundam fans will be
in their late 40s to early 60s. I can guarantee you that there will
be more than a handful otakus who can afford it. Actually I feel
confident we will see both a Gundam and a Zaku before 2017.
The tech is available off-the-shelf TODAY, all it takes is a single
geek with money burning a hole in his pocket.
(also check out the JL421 Badonkadonk Land Cruiser/Tank at Amazon.com)
--
Dr. Core
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