Joseph Riggs wrote:
From what I've heard, they're working on fixing this deficiency, though...

Of course they are, and the more they progress, the more they will
become unable to fight a straight-up ground (surface) war.  Sure they
could try a US or Israel-like bombing campaign, oh wait they already
have something like 999 missiles pointing at Taiwan. Who needs boats
nowadays?

The BIG threat to China isn't if the US parks an aircraft carrier off-shore and 
starts sinking
the Chinese navy.  The real threat is if the US parks an aircraft carrier in 
the Persian Gulf
and starts sinking ships carrying oil to China (and one off of the coast of 
Sudan, as well).

O_O That's it, blockade? Of one resource? From 7 time zones away???
Not even a no-fly zone like Bush the First gave the Kurds? Naval
blockade is so 1930s.  Are you throwing in CIA-sponsored coup in
Caracas to prevent Chavez diverting US-bound oil to China?  And a
bombing campaign against Russia's Far East pipeline?  What about the
brand new Chinese strategic oil reserve?  Phase 1 is on schedule to be
completed next year, lo and behold is being built by US companies.
Assuming your oil blockade is 100% effective, Taiwan will have to
endure 20 days (longer if China wait for phase 2 or 3 to complete) of
bombing before China starts to feel a little inconvenienced.  And
now... what if some Chinese commanders read the GML and learn that
time is essential and take a comprehensive
air+sea+amphibious+missiles+nukes approach?  Can TW hold out until oil
blockade works?

So you would be sympathetic to TW independence politicians sometimes
making (erratic) appeasement gestures to China.  This
hot-off-the-press

 http://www.voanews.com/english/2007-06-19-voa72.cfm
 http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2007/06/21/2003366214

certainly won't embolden TW independence movement.


--
Dr. Core
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