Huh? You lost me on your response to my boat comment. I mentioned that the Chinese are increasing the number of craft they have that can carry troops, and you state that it means that they'll be unable to fight a surface war? You've lost me there.
As for an oil blockade
- While I specifically mentioned two locations, that wasn't meant to be an end/all be/all of the size of the blockade. There are only so many places you can get oil from, and at the moment China gets all of its oil from overseas. The US probably has enough aircraft carriers and submarines to block the majority of Chinese oil shipments. The Gulf just happens to be a very nice chokepoint. And that'd hurt the Chinese economy pretty badly. The question is - if Taiwan fell, would the US maintain the blockade until the Chinese pulled out? And if so, what would the PRC do? If the US maintained it, then the Chinese might have a problem because oil is a very large part of what's driving the Chinese economy. But then you've got to wonder about what that might do to the global economy - both due to the affect on oil supplies, and due to the changes a possibly damaged Chinese economy causes.
Of course, China would try and break the blockade, and is expanding its own submarine fleet at the moment.
As for what the Taiwanese should probably do?
From my outside, non-expert PoV, probably stick with the status quo and not try and rock the boat too hard. If China ever starts to get overly pushy, then maybe start making waves. But until then don't unecessarily antagonize the dragon living across the water. And hope and pray that the Chinese government collapses and is replaced with one that's more compatible with the freedoms that Taiwanese citizens enjoy.
junior
---------[ Received Mail Content ]----------
Subject : Re: Totalitarians and Humor was Re: [gundam] WTF: Gundam 00?
Date : Wed, 20 Jun 2007 23:43:00 -0400
From : "Dr. Core" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To : [email protected]
Of course they are, and the more they progress, the more they will
become unable to fight a straight-up ground (surface) war. Sure they
could try a US or Israel-like bombing campaign, oh wait they already
have something like 999 missiles pointing at Taiwan. Who needs boats
nowadays?
> The BIG threat to China isn't if the US parks an aircraft carrier off-shore and starts sinking
> the Chinese navy. The real threat is if the US parks an aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf
> and starts sinking ships carrying oil to China (and one off of the coast of Sudan, as well).
O_O That's it, blockade? Of one resource? From 7 time zones away???
Not even a no-fly zone like Bush the First gave the Kurds? Naval
blockade is so 1930s. Are you throwing in CIA-sponsored coup in
Caracas to prevent Chavez diverting US-bound oil to China? And a
bombing campaign against Russia's Far East pipeline? What about the
brand new Chinese strategic oil reserve? Phase 1 is on schedule to be
completed next year, lo and behold is being built by US companies.
Assuming your oil blockade is 100% effective, Taiwan will have to
endure 20 days (longer if China wait for phase 2 or 3 to complete) of
bombing before China starts to feel a little inconvenienced. And
now... what if some Chinese commanders read the GML and learn that
time is essential and take a comprehensive
air+sea+amphibious+missiles+nukes approach? Can TW hold out until oil
blockade works?
So you would be sympathetic to TW independence politicians sometimes
making (erratic) appeasement gestures to China. This
hot-off-the-press
http://www.voanews.com/english/2007-06-19-voa72.cfm
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2007/06/21/2003366214
certainly won't embolden TW independence movement.
--
Dr. Core
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