Before we all get our knickers in a twist... Ana is also predicted by ALL the models to dissipate in the next 24-48 hours.. If anything it will more of a rain event for the Islands..
I am far more concerned about Bill... Claudette is already onshore.. IF it were me, and I lived in the NC area.. I would far more concerned about this dude.. IF we have a low develop CONUS it will draw Bill ashore, rather than the current predicted path offshore. If you do the models and you pay attenton to the steering winds, and you pay attention to the weather CONUS it will serve you better than NOAA.. I know that sounds a bit arrogant, but having been an avid hurricane groupie most of my life.. its a trick I learned.. I would believe Dr Masters blog and I save www.stormjunkie.com to disk .. from dr masters blog, IF you have some spare time. Read the comments.. I have found some awesome weather links.. such as the Cuban weather service and other countries radars from the comment section. I also started following left420 who created stormjunkie dot com and this guy.. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/StormW/show.html While everyone does get thier info from NOAA... how they apply it can be different.. Dr Masters is the chair in meteorology at the U of Mich.. this is what HE does for a living.. over the past 4 yrs that I have read his blog, I have been impressed. He states clearly how he arrives at his conclusions. One of the models, fyi, is based out of FSU. in any case.. have fun.. www.wunderground.com then go to either tropical to see the latest.. or wunderblogs to see what Dr M has to say and remember read the comments.. good stuff hidden there.. 'bella aboard sv something on the hard for the nonce.. On Mon, Aug 17, 2009 at 11:43 AM, Stephen Petri <[email protected]>wrote: > FYI-3 > > ------------------------------ > *From:* BoatUS Hurricane Resource Center [mailto:[email protected]] > *Sent:* Monday, August 17, 2009 8:16 AM > *To:* [email protected] > *Subject:* BoatUS Storm Advisory for Ana > > Having problems viewing this e-mail? Please click > here<http://smtp.boatus.net/dm?id=912122654D277189EE0E02F150D04C07> > . > *Ana* > *Current Forecast > Track*<http://smtp.boatus.net/t?r=3&c=7768&l=159&ctl=1EB831:912122654D277189EE0E02F150D04C07&;> > > *Spaghetti > Model*<http://smtp.boatus.net/t?r=3&c=7768&l=159&ctl=1EB832:912122654D277189EE0E02F150D04C07&;> > > *Current Wind Field > *<http://smtp.boatus.net/t?r=3&c=7768&l=159&ctl=1EB833:912122654D277189EE0E02F150D04C07&;> > * > <http://smtp.boatus.net/t?r=3&c=7768&l=159&ctl=1EB834:912122654D277189EE0E02F150D04C07&;> > * > > > <http://smtp.boatus.net/t?r=3&c=7768&l=159&ctl=1EB835:912122654D277189EE0E02F150D04C07&;> > > > <http://smtp.boatus.net/t?r=3&c=7768&l=159&ctl=1EB836:912122654D277189EE0E02F150D04C07&;> > *Current > Satellite*<http://smtp.boatus.net/t?r=3&c=7768&l=159&ctl=1EB834:912122654D277189EE0E02F150D04C07&;> > *Wind Speed Probabilities > *<http://smtp.boatus.net/t?r=3&c=7768&l=159&ctl=1EB835:912122654D277189EE0E02F150D04C07&;> > *NOAA 5-Day Forecast > *<http://smtp.boatus.net/t?r=3&c=7768&l=159&ctl=1EB836:912122654D277189EE0E02F150D04C07&;> > Images > courtesy of NOAA and may load slower than the other images, as they are > coming from their server. > *Track this storm now at > BoatUS.com/Hurricanes<http://smtp.boatus.net/t?r=3&c=7768&l=159&ctl=1EB837:912122654D277189EE0E02F150D04C07&;> > * > *Public Advisory* > Last Updated: 8/17/2009 7:47:27 AM > > *Tropical Depression ANA: Public Advisory* *Adv # 21A, 08/17/2009 12:00 > UTC** > > TCPAT2 > BULLETIN > TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A > NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009 > 800 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009 > > ...ANA MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...COULD DISSIPATE > TODAY... > > A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. > VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS... > ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...ST. MARTIN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... > GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO > ENGANO WESTWARD TO CABO BEATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT > TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... > GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. > > FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED > STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE > MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE > FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA > OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED > BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. > > AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA WAS > ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST OR ABOUT > 70 MILES...115 KM...SOUTH OF ST. CROIX. > > ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 28 MPH...45 KM/HR...AND > THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED > OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...ANA IS FORECAST TO > REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY. > > MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER > GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE > OF DAYS. HOWEVER...ANA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER > TODAY. > > ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. > > ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER > THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH > VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM > AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. > > ...SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST INFORMATION... > LOCATION...16.7N 64.8W > MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH > PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH > MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB > > THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT > 1100 AM AST. > > > FORECASTER FRANKLIN/CANGIALOSI > > > > Created using HURRTRAK EM/Pro 2009 Version 20.12, PC Weather Products, Inc. > * > > > *PLEASE NOTE:* This email was sent to [email protected]. *DO NOT > REPLY TO THIS EMAIL, **click > here*<http://smtp.boatus.net/u?id=912122654D277189EE0E02F150D04C07>to > unsubscribe from the BoatUS Storm Advisories or email > *[email protected]* <[email protected]> with any questions or comments. > > BoatUS, 880 South Pickett Street, Alexandria, VA 22304 > ©2009, Boat Owners Association of The United States. 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