I forgot to put in the speculation part. Soooorrrryyyy!!!
Teaming with IBM got Apple a lot of notice, especially after the
projects like the Virginia cluster were so successful. XServe and Xraid
showed they had a place in the corporate network computer room. But
only a place, not the entire room. the corporate buyer still replaced
machines in mass regularly, on schedule, with new critters that "have
the Intel inside" stickers and did begin to nod to the Mac folks, but
it has only been a nod.
[Your market share numbers are a bit deceiving, home users with Macs
tend not to replace them every couple of quarters like the corporate
buyers do. 3% is actually a lot of new buyers with some replacers in
there.]
Now with the ability to get serious attention from corporate buyers who
tend to influence home buyers that but what they use at the office,
Apple COULD make hay while the sun shines. (and yes still give those
that pine after PPC machines something to use as well).
That was some of the speculation part.
Jerry
On Jun 08, 2005, at 12:03 AM, Jerry Yeager wrote:
> But the safety is probably on ... (to continue your analogy).
>
> Consider the facts that have been presented to us.
> 1) Marklar is real rather than the stuff of "Apple legend and lore on
> the 'Net". It has been going on for 5 years. [Well okay, much longer
> than that if you count the years OS-X was being developed at NeXt
> where it was built totally for x86 general computers -- ones NeXt and
> now Apple could not controil the extra hardware being added on by
> builders.]
> 2) OS-X runs on Intel hardware now and was demonstrated to do so on a
> Pentium 4 machine. Developers can lease a P4 machine with OS-X on it
> now.
> 3) Except for Altivec based apps, most apps are supposed to be fairly
> easy to re-compile, especially Cocoa apps and X-code stuff. Altivec
> based apps will take slight to moderate work to translate to Intel
> architecture code.
>
> This means that motherboards and peripherals are also ready to go now.
> It sounds like if the need was there, Apple could have lots of
> machines on the shelves by September. So why the year to two year wait
> on the transition?
>
> Perhaps Mr. Jobs and that gang of wiley rascals in Cupertino are
> trying to open up some more options. Bring heat on IBM to produce the
> G5 and later chips they way they should be. Perhaps to make sure that
> Intel really can kick out high quality 64 bit dual core chips.
> Opterons and better perhaps? Maybe to give AMD time to gear up to meet
> the challenge (now that the idea of using more than the PPC processors
> is out there for the masses to digest).
>
> Certainly there is some room for speculation here.
>
> Jerry
>
>
> On Jun 07, 2005, at 11:14 PM, Bill Holt wrote:
>
>> Well Henri, I could be wrong and hope that I am, but I think that
>> Apple finally, with this one, remembered to put the bullet in the gun
>> before putting the gun to its head. Again, I would prefer to be
>> wrong. But with the share of sales hovering in the 3% range, and the
>> sales that are going to be lost because of this, I think that market
>> share is likely to drop to the point that critical mass is lost.
>> Heaven know, if you allow your life to be run by common perceptions,
>> you're in for a lot of disappointment. But common perception is the
>> meat of the market-place, and if common perception is that Apple
>> can't hold more than a trivial share, common perception will be that
>> Apple's not to be taken seriously.
>>
>> I hate it, because except for the Gil years, Apple's been the source
>> of the best machines out there - when you factored in the OS. My
>> PB5300 still serves me well. Heck I'm about to replace the screen on
>> my Newton 2100 because it is so useful to me. But my lust for the
>> duel G5 is dampened with apprehension ... it's not really an orphan
>> already, but it will suffer some of the pain. My cad software will
>> not be optimized to take advantage of the power of this unit. That's
>> a big deal. And already, Filemaker Inc - wholly owned by Apple -
>> gives the Mac portion of its buyers second tier treatment. I say
>> this because there are some critical functions which have not worked
>> on the Mac side since 7.0.0, and now that 7.0.3 is out, they still
>> don't work. They've worked on the Windoze side since day one ... and
>> the situation is critical to my work to the degree that I will
>> probably have to rework all my marketing lit and actually go with a
>> Windoze server approach. I can see it now. Instead of boasting
>> about the stability of UNIX and data security, I'll have to write
>> something like, "Well, we're not proud to use Windoze, because it
>> sucks, but at least it works."
>>
>> Today I had to make a trip to the office supply place and Breck and
>> Dutchmans, whatever it's name is, and while I was there I looked at
>> the line of notebooks they had on display. This was not lust, it was
>> looking in the same way you can't help but look at an automobile
>> accident as you drive by. Some of the units gave the impression of
>> being of reasonable quality construction - a minority - but they were
>> all running the current Windoze system ... and it surely does suck.
>> From the moment I went for the "Start" button (XP - what an idiotic
>> interface design!) I was reminded of how distinctly unresponsive it
>> is (slow menu pops and button responses) and that it is actually
>> ugly, in a 1957 Desoto sort of way. The only marriage of form and
>> function is one of convenience, apparently made with the help of a
>> shotgun.
>>
>> And finally, and I"ll shut up after this, it's so frustrating for
>> Apple to miss a real chance penetrate further into the market with
>> this stupidity. As best as I can tell, it will be at least a year or
>> two before the Intel chips can match current cost-performance of the
>> PPC series. Sure, Intel has promised great things in the future, but
>> I'm not overly impressed by their history of delivery. From what
>> I've read, the AMD dual core is vastly superior to the Intel version,
>> which was apparently hurried for the specific reason of creating the
>> perception that they were in the lead ... that perception thing
>> again. So, instead of taking advantage of the opportunity that M$
>> has presented with it's laggardly development schedule for the next
>> generation of WinCrap, Apple ignores that very large opportunity and
>> aligns itself to compete with companies that can eat it's lunch by
>> selling things that look as good as Apple's machines, to the
>> non-critical eye, for less money. And since some of the security
>> problems on the Windoze side are due to the Intel architecture
>> (http://www.cio-today.com/story.xhtml?story_id=12300002FPRC), in
>> addition to the glitchy OS, I think switching to Intel is roughly
>> equivalent to hiring a typhoid carrier to cook your meals.
>>
>> Bill Holt
>>
>>
>> On Tuesday, June 7, 2005, at 08:34 PM, Henri Yandell wrote:
>>
>>> On 6/6/05, Bill Holt <billholt at iglou.com> wrote:
>>>> As a dedicated user and developer since March 1984, who's promoted
>>>> the
>>>> platform at almost every opportunity, I hate it that the following
>>>> song
>>>> is what comes to mind: Our D I V O R C E, become final today
>>>> ....
>>>
>>> Mine was a month ago, the powerbook was finally sent to hibernate in
>>> the basement a week ago. I write this on a dual Win/Lin cheapie Dell
>>> laptop.
>>>
>>>> My current feeling is that it would be too embarrassing to continue
>>>> the
>>>> "relationship" and that I'll just be a user of convenience. I
>>>> anticipate embracing the lukewarm, moldy smell of platform
>>>> neutrality.
>>>
>>> I got tired of the other half in the relationship taking advantage
>>> of me.
>>>
>>> That said, Apple make the best laptops out there. IBM were next, but
>>> they've sold the business and I'm not confident the Thinkpad will be
>>> a
>>> class act in 2 years when I buy a replacement to my 4 year old
>>> powerbook (the Dell is a 2 or 3 year old stopgap).
>>>
>>> If I could triple boot an Apple (OS X, Win XP and x86 Linux), then I
>>> would have the perfect machine. The biggest problems with that idea
>>> are:
>>>
>>> a) One-button mouse. Windows/SuSE Linux on a Powerbook will be
>>> painful
>>> unless Apple start shipping two button laptops. Three button with a
>>> scroll-wheel would be best.
>>>
>>> b) Only Apple machines are likely to run OS X. I can't see Apple
>>> supporting all the Intel hardware out there, it'll just be a small
>>> subset. You'll either buy an Apple, or you'll choose your bits very
>>> carefully. That said, the open-darwin project means that some things
>>> (network cards, hard-drives) will be well supported. Graphics cards
>>> (for full OS X features) and wireless would be my main worries,
>>> especially for a laptop.
>>>
>>> I've also heard that there are likely to be differences at the BIOS
>>> level on the machine, no idea if that would be true.
>>>
>>> Still, a triple-boot machine would be very nice.
>>>
>>> Hen
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> | The next meeting of the Louisville Computer Society will
>>> | be July 26. The LCS Web page is <http://www.kymac.org>.
>>> | List posting address: <mailto:macgroup at erdos.math.louisville.edu>
>>> | List Web page: <http://erdos.math.louisville.edu/macgroup>
>>>
>>
>>
>>
>> | The next meeting of the Louisville Computer Society will
>> | be July 26. The LCS Web page is <http://www.kymac.org>.
>> | List posting address: <mailto:macgroup at erdos.math.louisville.edu>
>> | List Web page: <http://erdos.math.louisville.edu/macgroup>
>>
>>
> -----------------------------------
> Someday, I will come up with a clever signature line. I am not sure if
> I will use it or not, but I will come up with one.
>
>
>
> | The next meeting of the Louisville Computer Society will
> | be July 26. The LCS Web page is <http://www.kymac.org>.
> | List posting address: <mailto:macgroup at erdos.math.louisville.edu>
> | List Web page: <http://erdos.math.louisville.edu/macgroup>
>
>
-----------------------------------
Someday, I will come up with a clever signature line. I am not sure if
I will use it or not, but I will come up with one.
| The next meeting of the Louisville Computer Society will
| be July 26. The LCS Web page is <http://www.kymac.org>.
| List posting address: <mailto:macgroup at erdos.math.louisville.edu>
| List Web page: <http://erdos.math.louisville.edu/macgroup>
