I hope you're right, Jerry. Bill
On Wednesday, June 8, 2005, at 12:33 AM, Jerry Yeager wrote: > I forgot to put in the speculation part. Soooorrrryyyy!!! > > Teaming with IBM got Apple a lot of notice, especially after the > projects like the Virginia cluster were so successful. XServe and > Xraid showed they had a place in the corporate network computer room. > But only a place, not the entire room. the corporate buyer still > replaced machines in mass regularly, on schedule, with new critters > that "have the Intel inside" stickers and did begin to nod to the Mac > folks, but it has only been a nod. > [Your market share numbers are a bit deceiving, home users with Macs > tend not to replace them every couple of quarters like the corporate > buyers do. 3% is actually a lot of new buyers with some replacers in > there.] > > Now with the ability to get serious attention from corporate buyers > who tend to influence home buyers that but what they use at the > office, Apple COULD make hay while the sun shines. (and yes still give > those that pine after PPC machines something to use as well). > > That was some of the speculation part. > > Jerry > > On Jun 08, 2005, at 12:03 AM, Jerry Yeager wrote: > >> But the safety is probably on ... (to continue your analogy). >> >> Consider the facts that have been presented to us. >> 1) Marklar is real rather than the stuff of "Apple legend and lore on >> the 'Net". It has been going on for 5 years. [Well okay, much longer >> than that if you count the years OS-X was being developed at NeXt >> where it was built totally for x86 general computers -- ones NeXt and >> now Apple could not controil the extra hardware being added on by >> builders.] >> 2) OS-X runs on Intel hardware now and was demonstrated to do so on a >> Pentium 4 machine. Developers can lease a P4 machine with OS-X on it >> now. >> 3) Except for Altivec based apps, most apps are supposed to be fairly >> easy to re-compile, especially Cocoa apps and X-code stuff. Altivec >> based apps will take slight to moderate work to translate to Intel >> architecture code. >> >> This means that motherboards and peripherals are also ready to go >> now. It sounds like if the need was there, Apple could have lots of >> machines on the shelves by September. So why the year to two year >> wait on the transition? >> >> Perhaps Mr. Jobs and that gang of wiley rascals in Cupertino are >> trying to open up some more options. Bring heat on IBM to produce the >> G5 and later chips they way they should be. Perhaps to make sure that >> Intel really can kick out high quality 64 bit dual core chips. >> Opterons and better perhaps? Maybe to give AMD time to gear up to >> meet the challenge (now that the idea of using more than the PPC >> processors is out there for the masses to digest). >> >> Certainly there is some room for speculation here. >> >> Jerry >> >> >> On Jun 07, 2005, at 11:14 PM, Bill Holt wrote: >> >>> Well Henri, I could be wrong and hope that I am, but I think that >>> Apple finally, with this one, remembered to put the bullet in the >>> gun before putting the gun to its head. Again, I would prefer to be >>> wrong. But with the share of sales hovering in the 3% range, and >>> the sales that are going to be lost because of this, I think that >>> market share is likely to drop to the point that critical mass is >>> lost. Heaven know, if you allow your life to be run by common >>> perceptions, you're in for a lot of disappointment. But common >>> perception is the meat of the market-place, and if common perception >>> is that Apple can't hold more than a trivial share, common >>> perception will be that Apple's not to be taken seriously. >>> >>> I hate it, because except for the Gil years, Apple's been the source >>> of the best machines out there - when you factored in the OS. My >>> PB5300 still serves me well. Heck I'm about to replace the screen >>> on my Newton 2100 because it is so useful to me. But my lust for >>> the duel G5 is dampened with apprehension ... it's not really an >>> orphan already, but it will suffer some of the pain. My cad >>> software will not be optimized to take advantage of the power of >>> this unit. That's a big deal. And already, Filemaker Inc - wholly >>> owned by Apple - gives the Mac portion of its buyers second tier >>> treatment. I say this because there are some critical functions >>> which have not worked on the Mac side since 7.0.0, and now that >>> 7.0.3 is out, they still don't work. They've worked on the Windoze >>> side since day one ... and the situation is critical to my work to >>> the degree that I will probably have to rework all my marketing lit >>> and actually go with a Windoze server approach. I can see it now. >>> Instead of boasting about the stability of UNIX and data security, >>> I'll have to write something like, "Well, we're not proud to use >>> Windoze, because it sucks, but at least it works." >>> >>> Today I had to make a trip to the office supply place and Breck and >>> Dutchmans, whatever it's name is, and while I was there I looked at >>> the line of notebooks they had on display. This was not lust, it >>> was looking in the same way you can't help but look at an automobile >>> accident as you drive by. Some of the units gave the impression of >>> being of reasonable quality construction - a minority - but they >>> were all running the current Windoze system ... and it surely does >>> suck. From the moment I went for the "Start" button (XP - what an >>> idiotic interface design!) I was reminded of how distinctly >>> unresponsive it is (slow menu pops and button responses) and that it >>> is actually ugly, in a 1957 Desoto sort of way. The only marriage >>> of form and function is one of convenience, apparently made with the >>> help of a shotgun. >>> >>> And finally, and I"ll shut up after this, it's so frustrating for >>> Apple to miss a real chance penetrate further into the market with >>> this stupidity. As best as I can tell, it will be at least a year >>> or two before the Intel chips can match current cost-performance of >>> the PPC series. Sure, Intel has promised great things in the >>> future, but I'm not overly impressed by their history of delivery. >>> From what I've read, the AMD dual core is vastly superior to the >>> Intel version, which was apparently hurried for the specific reason >>> of creating the perception that they were in the lead ... that >>> perception thing again. So, instead of taking advantage of the >>> opportunity that M$ has presented with it's laggardly development >>> schedule for the next generation of WinCrap, Apple ignores that very >>> large opportunity and aligns itself to compete with companies that >>> can eat it's lunch by selling things that look as good as Apple's >>> machines, to the non-critical eye, for less money. And since some >>> of the security problems on the Windoze side are due to the Intel >>> architecture >>> (http://www.cio-today.com/story.xhtml?story_id=12300002FPRC), in >>> addition to the glitchy OS, I think switching to Intel is roughly >>> equivalent to hiring a typhoid carrier to cook your meals. >>> >>> Bill Holt >>> >>> >>> On Tuesday, June 7, 2005, at 08:34 PM, Henri Yandell wrote: >>> >>>> On 6/6/05, Bill Holt <billholt at iglou.com> wrote: >>>>> As a dedicated user and developer since March 1984, who's promoted >>>>> the >>>>> platform at almost every opportunity, I hate it that the following >>>>> song >>>>> is what comes to mind: Our D I V O R C E, become final >>>>> today .... >>>> >>>> Mine was a month ago, the powerbook was finally sent to hibernate in >>>> the basement a week ago. I write this on a dual Win/Lin cheapie Dell >>>> laptop. >>>> >>>>> My current feeling is that it would be too embarrassing to >>>>> continue the >>>>> "relationship" and that I'll just be a user of convenience. I >>>>> anticipate embracing the lukewarm, moldy smell of platform >>>>> neutrality. >>>> >>>> I got tired of the other half in the relationship taking advantage >>>> of me. >>>> >>>> That said, Apple make the best laptops out there. IBM were next, but >>>> they've sold the business and I'm not confident the Thinkpad will >>>> be a >>>> class act in 2 years when I buy a replacement to my 4 year old >>>> powerbook (the Dell is a 2 or 3 year old stopgap). >>>> >>>> If I could triple boot an Apple (OS X, Win XP and x86 Linux), then I >>>> would have the perfect machine. The biggest problems with that idea >>>> are: >>>> >>>> a) One-button mouse. Windows/SuSE Linux on a Powerbook will be >>>> painful >>>> unless Apple start shipping two button laptops. Three button with a >>>> scroll-wheel would be best. >>>> >>>> b) Only Apple machines are likely to run OS X. I can't see Apple >>>> supporting all the Intel hardware out there, it'll just be a small >>>> subset. You'll either buy an Apple, or you'll choose your bits very >>>> carefully. That said, the open-darwin project means that some things >>>> (network cards, hard-drives) will be well supported. Graphics cards >>>> (for full OS X features) and wireless would be my main worries, >>>> especially for a laptop. >>>> >>>> I've also heard that there are likely to be differences at the BIOS >>>> level on the machine, no idea if that would be true. >>>> >>>> Still, a triple-boot machine would be very nice. >>>> >>>> Hen >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> | The next meeting of the Louisville Computer Society will >>>> | be July 26. The LCS Web page is <http://www.kymac.org>. >>>> | List posting address: <mailto:macgroup at erdos.math.louisville.edu> >>>> | List Web page: <http://erdos.math.louisville.edu/macgroup> >>>> >>> >>> >>> >>> | The next meeting of the Louisville Computer Society will >>> | be July 26. The LCS Web page is <http://www.kymac.org>. >>> | List posting address: <mailto:macgroup at erdos.math.louisville.edu> >>> | List Web page: <http://erdos.math.louisville.edu/macgroup> >>> >>> >> ----------------------------------- >> Someday, I will come up with a clever signature line. I am not sure >> if I will use it or not, but I will come up with one. >> >> >> >> | The next meeting of the Louisville Computer Society will >> | be July 26. The LCS Web page is <http://www.kymac.org>. >> | List posting address: <mailto:macgroup at erdos.math.louisville.edu> >> | List Web page: <http://erdos.math.louisville.edu/macgroup> >> >> > ----------------------------------- > Someday, I will come up with a clever signature line. I am not sure if > I will use it or not, but I will come up with one. > > > > | The next meeting of the Louisville Computer Society will > | be July 26. The LCS Web page is <http://www.kymac.org>. > | List posting address: <mailto:macgroup at erdos.math.louisville.edu> > | List Web page: <http://erdos.math.louisville.edu/macgroup> > | The next meeting of the Louisville Computer Society will | be July 26. The LCS Web page is <http://www.kymac.org>. | List posting address: <mailto:macgroup at erdos.math.louisville.edu> | List Web page: <http://erdos.math.louisville.edu/macgroup>
