All explained here:

http://pondini.org/TM/12.html


On May 16, 2015, at 11:10 AM, Carl Hoefs <[email protected]> wrote:

> 
>> On May 16, 2015, at 11:03 AM, Carl Hoefs <[email protected]> 
>> wrote:
>> 
>> OS X 10.10.3
>> 
>> Why does TimeMachine think it needs to delete old backups? My external 3GB 
>> drive used for TM backups is nearly empty, with 2.7GB free. In TM 
>> Preferences it says “The oldest backups are deleted when your disk becomes 
>> full”, yet after the last backup it deleted 2 ‘expired’ backups. What is 
>> going on?
>> 
>> May 16 10:45:57 com.apple.backupd[1014]: Starting post-backup thinning
>> May 16 10:45:57 kernel[0]: hfs: unmount initiated on Recovery HD on device 
>> disk0s3
>> May 16 10:46:09 com.apple.backupd[1014]: Deleted /Volumes/Time Machine 
>> Drive/Backups.backupdb/2015-03-12-151308 (137.9 MB)
>> May 16 10:46:15 com.apple.backupd[1014]: Deleted /Volumes/Time Machine 
>> Drive/Backups.backupdb/2015-04-09-000413 (28.8 MB)
>> May 16 10:46:15 com.apple.backupd[1014]: Post-backup thinning complete: 2 
>> expired backups removed
>> May 16 10:46:15 com.apple.backupd[1014]: Backup completed successfully.
>> 
>> Filesystem    1024-blocks      Used  Available Capacity  iused     ifree 
>> %iused  Mounted on
>> /dev/disk2s2   2929930664 179088592 2750842072     7% 22386072 343855259    
>> 6%   /Volumes/Time Machine Drive
>> 
> 
> Slight clarification to the above. Obviously I meant 3TB drive, and 2.7TB 
> free. 
> 
> Here’s a more complete system.log entry set. You can see that the ‘expired’ 
> backups are one 1 and 2 months old
> 
> May 16 10:42:05 com.apple.backupd[1014]: Starting automatic backup
> May 16 10:42:14 com.apple.backupd[1014]: Backing up to /dev/disk2s2: 
> /Volumes/Time Machine Drive/Backups.backupdb
> May 16 10:42:38 com.apple.backupd[1014]: Will copy (41.6 MB) from Macintosh HD
> May 16 10:42:38 com.apple.backupd[1014]: Found 318 files (41.6 MB) needing 
> backup
> May 16 10:42:38 com.apple.backupd[1014]: 4.93 GB required (including 
> padding), 2.82 TB available
> May 16 10:45:41 com.apple.backupd[1014]: Copied 477 items (41.4 MB) from 
> volume Macintosh HD. Linked 1386.
> May 16 10:45:54 com.apple.backupd[1014]: Created new backup: 2015-05-16-104554
> May 16 10:45:57 com.apple.backupd[1014]: Starting post-backup thinning
> May 16 10:46:09 com.apple.backupd[1014]: Deleted /Volumes/Time Machine 
> Drive/Backups.backupdb/2015-03-12-151308 (137.9 MB)
> May 16 10:46:15 com.apple.backupd[1014]: Deleted /Volumes/Time Machine 
> Drive/Backups.backupdb/2015-04-09-000413 (28.8 MB)
> May 16 10:46:15 com.apple.backupd[1014]: Post-backup thinning complete: 2 
> expired backups removed
> May 16 10:46:15 com.apple.backupd[1014]: Backup completed successfully.
> 
> -Carl
> 
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