Are they still fundamentally constrained by their choice of network
provider, despite complying with every possible security and delivery
behaviour to warrant and verify the content and sender of every email?

Yes.  Remember, nobody else cares as much about the mail you send as you do.

Has the prevailing method of deciding worthiness now become permanently
biased towards the 'prior reputation' factor?

Yes.  See above.

If so, would an operator ever be able to build the kind of reputation to
have reliable delivery to the big public services, without resorting to
using third party delivery providers? To me that feels like an expensive
cop-out and is assisting the creation of a de facto oligopoly (never mind
all the arguments about a two-tier email ecosystem, net neutrality etc).

Find a provider that keeps its spamming customers under control. It's not hard, they do exist, but you're not likely to find them selling self-serve VPS for $2/mo.

Regards,
John Levine, jo...@taugh.com, Taughannock Networks, Trumansburg NY
Please consider the environment before reading this e-mail. https://jl.ly

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