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I have sent a link to this article by Charles Lister before, but I think it is useful to look at it in more detail: https://warontherocks.com/2017/10/turkeys-idlib-incursion-and-the-hts-question-understanding-the-long-game-in-syria/ The article was written in October last year. Lister supported the Turkish intervention that occurred at that time. Even though I oppose Lister's politics, I think the article is useful in giving some factual information, and in explaining the thinking of the Turkish state. Here are some of the article's key points (in quotation marks), and my comments: "Turkey's soldiers had been provided with an armed escort into Idlib by none other than the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)." "According to multiple well-placed opposition and jihadist sources, the Turkish move into Idlib was the result of an intensive negotiation process between HTS and Turkey." "Much of the speculation about a potential Turkish intervention in Idlib had framed it as an anti-HTS operation. But this misunderstood the dynamics driving recent Russian-Turkish negotiations and the priorities of the main players. For Turkey, the dominant security concern in the Idlib-Western Aleppo zone has always been the YPG and its stated desire to expand west into Idlib." The Syrian Democratic Forces include fighters from Idlib who were driven from their homes by HTS (then called Jabhat al-Nusra). These people naturally want to liberate their home towns from HTS. HTS obviously wants to prevent this happening. This provides a reason for HTS to collaborate with Turkey in fighting against the SDF. "Many of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) groups based in Idlib, western Aleppo, and northern Hama expressed their determination to fight HTS directly on the battlefield, liberate their territories, and exact revenge." However Turkey did not allow this: "Although nearly 1,000 FSA fighters sat on the border across from Atmeh, not one of them was asked to join Turkey’s operation." "It was the more powerful Islamist groups — particularly Ahrar al-Sham and Faylaq al-Sham — that were more acutely aware of Ankara’s thinking." Thus the FSA fighters were excluded because they wanted to fight HTS, whereas Turkey only wanted to fight the Syrian Democratic Forces. Why did the FSA groups want to fight HTS? It was due to HTS's history of attacking them: "Facing compounding internal and external challenges, HTS has repeatedly resorted to violently asserting its influence vis-à-vis opposition movements it deems to be threats or competitors. These pre-emptive military conquests (against the 13th Division, Free Idlib Army, Suqor al-Sham, Al-Jabhat al-Shamiya, Tajamu Fastaqim Kama Umrit, and Ahrar al-Sham) consolidated the group’s politico-military dominance in at least 60 percent of Idlib, but also severely eroded the legitimacy gained in previous years through successful anti-Assad operations." I think it is likely that the FSA groups are feeling frustrated at Turkey's refusal to let them fight HTS. The recent efforts of Jaysh al-Thuwar (Army of Revolutionaries - an Arab component of the SDF) to highlight its continuity with the FSA may be an attempt to re-establish links with these groups. "In addition to its alleged covert activities, Turkey is also heavily involved in backing a very public revival of the Syrian Interim Government (SIG), under the leadership of heart surgeon Jawad Abu Hatab.... "Beyond military matters, the SIG is more broadly presenting itself and increasingly being presented as the potential public face of a Turkish-backed socio-political and territorial alternative to HTS, the YPG, and the Assad regime. The SIG currently maintains its in-country headquarters in the Aleppo town of Azaz (within the Turkish-protected Euphrates Shield zone) and manages 12 provincial councils and more than 400 local councils across the country. The SIG has also sponsored a number of democratic elections in Idlib — much to the chagrin of HTS." I am dubious about the claim that the SIG "manages" 12 provincial councils and 400 local councils. I suspect that Lister is accepting the SIG's claim of credit for councils which are actually organised by local people in various areas without much help from outsiders. Similarly the SIG claims to have "sponsored" democratic elections in Idlib province. But there is no mention of democratic elections in Aleppo province, even though the SIG has its "in-country headquarters" there. It would be difficult to organise genuinely democratic elections in an area that is under Turkish military occupation. Chris Slee _________________________________________________________ Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm Set your options at: http://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
