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“This BBC article claims that the numbers of just Uighars numbers between 7,000 and 10,000 depending on the source. Of other ethnic fighters they say a “high concentration.” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-45401474”. That article, dated September 2018, also made the claim that “thousands have taken up arms against the government, including jihadists linked to al-Qaeda.” To have some credibility, media such as the BBC should at least keep up to date. There are no “jihadists linked to al-Qaida” in Idlib, as anyone free of post-9/11 “war on terror” ideology is well aware, unless they mean the handful of pro-Qaida, ex-Nusra folk in Hurras al-Din, many of whom are in HTS prisons. Anyway, the article quotes Assadist MP Fares Shehabi that there are 10,000 Uighars in Idlib. Not sure if you consider a regime hack a credible source, but based on his assertion that there are 100,000 “al-Qaida-linked” militants, my tendency would be to divide anything he says by about 100. As for the “war on terror” style AFP article: “This AFP article gives the number of just Uighar fighters (as opposed to them and their “families”) between 1 and several thousand. It also mentions high concentrations of Chechens. https://www.afp.com/en/news/23/foreign-fighters-syrias-idlib-face-last-stand-doc-18x6wz1”. The BBC article said “several thousand” including their families. So about 1000 fighters is probably about right. It also corresponds better to what we hear on the ground. There are not exactly daily reports of huge numbers of Uighar fighters, though here and there there is reference to the TIP. Certainly nothing in the order of either HTS or its opponents. Most estimates put HTS strength at about 10,000 fighters (that is also the number given in the BBC article by UN's special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, who erroneously claimed they were “associated with al-Qaeda.” However, referring to these numbers, Ahmad Abazeid, a Turkey-based Syrian analyst, “says that figure is an exaggeration and the fighters number only a few thousand.” https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/09/looming-battle-idlib-180908142026400.html I’m not sure who is correct, but one thing for sure is that Nusra numbers were never estimated as any higher than 10,000, though given that HTS is a coalition of Nusra (now JFS) with 5 very small groups (not all jihadist), Lister’s 12,000 figure may be correct, but again I would urge caution given Abazeid’s analysis. Overwhelmingly, these are Syrians, because when Nusra (now the core of HTS) and ISIS split in 2013, there was a very heavy divide between foreign fighters (overwhelmingly went with ISIS) and local fighters (overwhelmingly with Nusra); after all, Nusra resulted from a “Syrianisation” of this otherwise foreign invader force from Iraq. However, there are a small number of foreign fighters with HTS, mostly Arabs. Nearly all other armed groups in Greater Idlib (ie, Idlib, southern and western Aleppo province, northern Hama and Latakia) are part of the National Front for Liberation (NFL) coalition, which includes the Free Idlib Army, which is itself a coalition of the major FSA groups in Idlib, and the Victory Army (Jaysh al-Nasr), another FSA coalition based in northern Hama. The NFL also includes Islamist groups like Ahrar al-Sham and many others. According to Abazeid, “NFL is the biggest force [in Idlib] in terms of numbers and geographical presence and weaponry.” Most sources suggest it has some 30,000 fighters (some estimates are as high as 70,000). According to the article quoting Abazeid, he “also cast doubt on those estimates.” But the quote from him “casting doubt” is merely “But NFL is a local formation, not an organised army, and therefore it's difficult to estimate its numbers.” That is very true: it is local; it is somewhat decentralised precisely because it is based directly in the communities and villages (as are most HTS cadre); it is an entirely indigenous fighting force. And here’s the thing: the most entirely local, indigenous, Syrian fighting forces are the FSA, and the mainstream Islamist groups. Regardless of how one assesses the varying politics, they are literally the sons of the soil. Overwhelmingly, this is also true of the YPG, among Kurdish Syrians. But just as HTS has a component of foreign fighters, so does the YPG. It is well-known that even at a leadership level, some of the PYD are actually PKK (ie, from Turkey). And everywhere that they either liberated or conquered in Syria was blessed with a gigantic cult-of-personality style portrait of Ocalan, a Turkish citizen. Now, we are not obsessed with borders, and the Kurds can well claim that Kurds from Turkey and elsewhere are part of their Kurdish nation. Yeh, I have no problem with that, because I’m not the one obsessed with “foreigners.” The Arabs claim the same about the Arab nation, after all. The overwhelming majority of foreign fighters fall into three categories: 1. The 63,000 Russian fighters who have fought in Syria (https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-says-over-63-000-troops-fought-syria-141424820.html)while their government bombs Syria, Vietnam-style, from the skies. 2. The global Shiite jihadists, from Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Lebanon, who account for some tens of thousands of troops fighting for the Assad regime. 3. Sunni jihdists, overwhelmingly in ISIS, itself an Iraqi-origin organisation. As we are speaking of Idlib, ISIS was expelled root and branch from the whole of Idlib and the whole of western Syria by the rebels in early 2014. Therefore, in terms of local v foreign composition/control, we can classify: 1. Completely local: FSA, anti-Assad Islamists 2. Mostly local, with some foreign fighters and/or traditional connections to outside-of-Syria organisations: Nusra/HTS, PYD/YPG 3. Heavily dominated/controlled by foreign states/agendas: Syrian regime, ISIS “So I think “thousands” was a reasonable number.” Yeh, could be, or perhaps 1000. Out of many 10s of 1000s. On Fri, Sep 14, 2018 at 1:35 PM Matthew Harvey <mattharv...@gmail.com> wrote: > > This BBC article claims that the numbers of just Uighars numbers between > 7,000 and 10,000 depending on the source. Of other ethnic fighters they say a > “high concentration.” > > https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-45401474 > > This AFP article gives the number of of just Uighar fighters (as opposed to > them and their “families”) between 1 and several thousand. It also mentions > high concentrations of Chechens. > > https://www.afp.com/en/news/23/foreign-fighters-syrias-idlib-face-last-stand-doc-18x6wz1 > > So I think “thousands” was a reasonable number. Now can you answer my > question please? > > Sent from my iPhone > > On Sep 13, 2018, at 10:00 PM, mkaradjis <mkarad...@gmail.com> wrote: > > "thousands of foreign jihadists holed up in Idlib" > Matt, do you mind providing sources for this piece of (mis)information? > On Fri, Sep 14, 2018 at 4:41 AM Matt Harvey via Marxism > <marxism@lists.csbs.utah.edu> wrote: > > > ******************** POSTING RULES & NOTES ******************** > > #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. > > #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. > > #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. > > ***************************************************************** > > > "The YPG is a mercenary offering its services to the highest > > bidder." > > > I'm agnostic verging on doubtful on the question of whether the Kurds > > represent a truly revolutionary force. (The Scoop Jackson's Society's > > trashing them is a vote in their favor though.) > > > But referring to any indigenous Syrian force as mercenaries when their are > > thousands of foreign jihadists holed up in Idlib is either active hypocrisy > > or political projection. In your framework are they like the > > Internationalists who fought in Spain? I'm truly curious as to what armed > > faction you think does represent the "revolutionary masses in Syria" and > > who backs them. > > _________________________________________________________ > > Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm > > Set your options at: > http://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/mkaradjis%40gmail.com _________________________________________________________ Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm Set your options at: http://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
