*Introduction:*
In March we first drew attention to some ultra-left errors on the COVID
outbreak *How Should Marxists View the COVID-19 Pandemic of 2019-2020?* *March
17 2020; at:
http://ml-today.com/2020/03/17/how-should-marxists-view-the-covid-19-pandemic-of-2019-2020/
<http://ml-today.com/2020/03/17/how-should-marxists-view-the-covid-19-pandemic-of-2019-2020/>)*).
In there we also outlined early on in this pandemic, some of the salient
science. In a number of articles since we have elaborated on these issues.
However, a persistent ultra-leftist stand has made itself heard. The
remarkable coincidence of these views with some of the ultra-right wing is
a sorry spectacle (*‘**Looking Under the Hood – The Instrumentation of a
Pandemic; November 30, 2020; at:
http://ml-today.com/2020/11/30/covid-denial-fascism/
<http://ml-today.com/2020/11/30/covid-denial-fascism/>*). We do not wish to
re-tread old ground, but a series of mis-perceptions about the death rates
in Sweden prompt this short review. We are under no illusions that the
Swedish state is or has been any bastion of socialism. However this
relatively liberal state, adopted very anti-science based policies in its
COVID epidemic. In the process it also un-veiled a remarkably cynical view
on the expendability of old people. There is no need to expend energy in
polemicising on this. We only try here to offer a view of the scientific
literature at the moment on COVID-19 and death rates, in especial as
related to Sweden.
*1) Sweden knocking off the old with COVID*
Mortality rates from Sweden cannot be reliably estimated in the old as
there is a significant pressure to under-report these. This can be seen
from anecdotal reports now widely circulating in the lay press about how
people in old age homes are 'allowed to die' without support. See for
instance this vignette in the WSJ - which in this case has a happy
ending:
"When 81-year-old Jan Andersson fell ill with Covid-19 at a nursing home in
the Swedish town of Märsta, a doctor consulted by phone ordered palliative
care, including morphine, instead of trying to help him fend off the
infection. Mr. Andersson’s son, Thomas Andersson, says he was told his
father was too frail for other treatment. The younger man disagreed and,
after arguing with the physician, summoned journalists and insisted his
father be given lifesaving care. Mr. Andersson has since
recovered."
*Bojan
Pancevski, 'Coronavirus Is Taking a High Toll on Sweden’s Elderly. Families
Blame the Government. Discontent is growing over official triage guidelines
critics say too often deny elderly patients vital care"; June 18, 2020; for
The Wall Street Journal *
In the same article in the WSJ is a graph showing the comparison of Swedish
death rates to those of the other so-called Nordic wonders". [*Figure 1*].
But there is another general problem in reporting crude death rates as has
been more or less standard. Assigning 'cause of death' to COIVD has led
many epidemiologist to more precise terminology. We will return to these
authors later, but for example here is the view of some Swedish based
epidemiologists:
"According to a recent report by WHO, Sweden is sharing the 12th place with
the US on the list of countries with most COVID-19 deaths per million
inhabitants (1). However, absolute death counts can be misleading and age-
and sex-specific death rates should be used when comparing countries in
order to account for differences in underlying age structure of both cases
and the total population.COVID-19 death counts are inherently uncertain and
unappropriated to compare between countries because they depend on the
testing strategy in the population, on the principles for assigning cause
of death, on whether only hospitalized deaths are considered or all deaths,
etc." *Modig K, Ahlbom A, Ebeling M
Excess mortality from covid-19. Weekly excess death rates by age and sex
for Sweden and its most affected region.. Eur J Public Health. 2020 Nov
10:ckaa218. doi: 10.1093/eurpub/ckaa218. Online ahead of print. PMID:
33169145*
In any case, the overtly obvious rising death rate in Sweden is becoming
(or actually has become) a burgeoning kerfuffle in the Swedish population.
They are increasingly alarmed about this 'non-aggressive' behaviour of
clinicians. I realise many leftists disdain 'Time Magazine" - but it has
been perceptive on this matter. What was not acceptable by many liberals
and those on the Right for Boris Johnson’s government, or Trump’s
government to say - was for Swedish leaders!:
"From early on, the Swedish government seemed to treat it as a foregone
conclusion that many people would die. The country’s Prime Minister Stefan
Löfven told the Swedish newspaper *Dagens Nyheter* on April 3, “We will
have to count the dead in thousands. It is just as well that we prepare for
it.” In July, as the death count reached 5,500, Löfven said that the
“strategy is right, I am completely convinced of that.”
*Kelly
Bjorklund & Andrew Ewing ‘The Swedish COVID-19 Response Is a Disaster. It
Shouldn’t Be a Model for the Rest of the World'; Time Magazine, October 14,
2020.*
Time magazine shows data from a study in JAMA comparing world-wide death
rates, and strongly convinces that the USA and Sweden share a common
pattern - of neglecting to react adequately to bring down high death rates
(figures 2 and 3). As Der Spiegel asks: "Hat Schweden die Alten geopfert? Has
Sweden sacrificed the old?" - and answers 'yes'.
*Dietmar Pieper Berichte von Angehörigen und Recherchen zeigen, dass viele
Covid-19-Opfer in Schweden noch leben könnten. "Man hat nicht versucht, ihr
Leben zu retten", sagt ein Virologe. 09.10.2020). *
*(2) The Concept of Excess Mortality - and what it shows in Sweden*
Some epidemiologists do appear to be trying to minimise the death rates
from COVID in - for example Sweden. One particularly famous example of such
an individual Prof. is John Ioannidis based in Stanford and Berlin. He
presents data for a statistic called "relative Risk" of death. This - as
its name implies shows the comparison of a rate as a function relative to
another. Thus in Figure 3 the relative rates of people over 65 is compared
to that of people under 65 in various countries. This certainly shows that
the rates of death are much higher in the elderly (by now not very much of
a surprise), including in Sweden (figure 4). However the conclusions that
he draws are that: "People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19
death even in pandemic epicenters and deaths for people <65 years without
underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies
focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be
considered in managing the pandemic."
*Ioannidis JPA, Axfors C,
Contopoulos-Ioannidis DG Population-level COVID-19 mortality risk for
non-elderly individuals overall and for non-elderly individuals without
underlying diseases in pandemic epicenters. Environ Res. 2020
Sep;188:109890. *
I believe this is trying to under-estimate the rates for younger people.
Here for example is a more specific age categorised death rate for Sweden,
showing figures plotted against the median values of the prior years
averaged between 2015-2019. Again it can be seen that there is a higher
mortality for the older sections of the population. But - it is also seen
in the years above the age of 50 years. *Modig K, Ahlbom A, Ebeling M Ibid.*
The rates in Figure 5 are described as 'excess mortality' but are
categorised by age and sex-specific rates - rather than absolute rates.
This is defined by other workers as" Excess mortality, the gap between the
deaths from any cause and the historical average for the same place and time
of year, (which) offers a more comprehensive way to measure the mortality
linked to the COVID-19 outbreak". These authors also describe a clear
excess mortality for all causes of death across age groups in the Stockholm
area (Figure 6) which are clearly falling disproportionately on the low
income group.
*Calderón-Larrañaga A, Vetrano DL, Rizzuto D, Bellander T, Fratiglioni L,
Dekhtyar S.*
*'High excess mortality in areas with young and socially vulnerable
populations during the COVID-19 outbreak in Stockholm Region, Sweden.' BMJ
Glob Health. 2020 Oct;5(10):e003595. doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003595*.
*3) Do masks and social distancing work to reduce rates of mortality? *
I have written about the clear linkage between COVID deniers and open
fascists such as those in Germany of the AFD before (*Looking Under the
Hood – The Instrumentation of a Pandemic
**http://ml-today.com/2020/11/30/covid-denial-fascism/
<http://ml-today.com/2020/11/30/covid-denial-fascism/> at:
http://ml-today.com/2020/11/30/covid-denial-fascism/
<http://ml-today.com/2020/11/30/covid-denial-fascism/>**).* But I did not
think in that article necessary to drill down into high level evidence. But
once more some 'leftists' are disputing the evidence. So here is some
evidence as opposed to opinion. Firstly a clear relationship between
wearing of masks and reducing death rates in countries with available data.
The authors write:
"In a multivariable analysis of 196 countries, the duration of the outbreak
in the country, and the proportion of the population aged 60 years or older
were positively associated with per-capita mortality, whereas duration of
mask-wearing by the public was negatively associated with mortality (all P
< 0.001)."
*Christopher T. Leffler, Edsel Ing, Joseph D. Lykins, Matthew C. Hogan,
Craig A. McKeown, and Andrzej Grzybowski Association of Country-wide
Coronavirus Mortality with Demographics, Testing, Lockdowns, and Public
Wearing of Masks Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2020 Dec; 103(6): 2400–2411. PMCID:
PMC7695060*
Finally when social distancing policies are graded into a scale, there is a
statistically significant relationship between both the incidence of COVID
and the mortality from it. This study was done in the USA, but although it
has an NIH approval, it is not yet peer-reviewed. However, it appears that
the more socially distanced policies resulting in lower death.
*Conclusions:*Any attempt to downplay the effects of Swedish health policy
- or should we say the failure of Swedish health policy - and a
relationship to higher infection rates or death rate s- is a white-wash.
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Groups.io Links: You receive all messages sent to this group.
View/Reply Online (#4908): https://groups.io/g/marxmail/message/4908
Mute This Topic: https://groups.io/mt/79259395/21656
-=-=-
POSTING RULES & NOTES
#1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message.
#2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived.
#3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern.
-=-=-
Group Owner: [email protected]
Unsubscribe: https://groups.io/g/marxmail/leave/8674936/1316126222/xyzzy
[[email protected]]
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
