This simply contains some graphic depictions of rates, that I found useful & relevant to this topic. http://ml-today.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/elderly-sweden-covid.pdf
Hari Kumar On Sun, Dec 27, 2020 at 6:06 PM hari kumar <[email protected]> wrote: > *Introduction:* > > In March we first drew attention to some ultra-left errors on the COVID > outbreak *How Should Marxists View the COVID-19 Pandemic of 2019-2020?* *March > 17 2020; at: > http://ml-today.com/2020/03/17/how-should-marxists-view-the-covid-19-pandemic-of-2019-2020/ > <http://ml-today.com/2020/03/17/how-should-marxists-view-the-covid-19-pandemic-of-2019-2020/>)*). > In there we also outlined early on in this pandemic, some of the salient > science. In a number of articles since we have elaborated on these issues. > However, a persistent ultra-leftist stand has made itself heard. The > remarkable coincidence of these views with some of the ultra-right wing is > a sorry spectacle (*‘**Looking Under the Hood – The Instrumentation of a > Pandemic; November 30, 2020; at: > http://ml-today.com/2020/11/30/covid-denial-fascism/ > <http://ml-today.com/2020/11/30/covid-denial-fascism/>*). We do not wish > to re-tread old ground, but a series of mis-perceptions about the death > rates in Sweden prompt this short review. We are under no illusions that > the Swedish state is or has been any bastion of socialism. However this > relatively liberal state, adopted very anti-science based policies in its > COVID epidemic. In the process it also un-veiled a remarkably cynical view > on the expendability of old people. There is no need to expend energy in > polemicising on this. We only try here to offer a view of the scientific > literature at the moment on COVID-19 and death rates, in especial as > related to Sweden. > > *1) Sweden knocking off the old with COVID* > > Mortality rates from Sweden cannot be reliably estimated in the old as > there is a significant pressure to under-report these. This can be seen > from anecdotal reports now widely circulating in the lay press about how > people in old age homes are 'allowed to die' without support. See for > instance this vignette in the WSJ - which in this case has a happy > ending: > > "When 81-year-old Jan Andersson fell ill with Covid-19 at a nursing home > in the Swedish town of Märsta, a doctor consulted by phone ordered > palliative care, including morphine, instead of trying to help him fend off > the infection. Mr. Andersson’s son, Thomas Andersson, says he was told his > father was too frail for other treatment. The younger man disagreed and, > after arguing with the physician, summoned journalists and insisted his > father be given lifesaving care. Mr. Andersson has since > recovered." > *Bojan > Pancevski, 'Coronavirus Is Taking a High Toll on Sweden’s Elderly. Families > Blame the Government. Discontent is growing over official triage guidelines > critics say too often deny elderly patients vital care"; June 18, 2020; for > The Wall Street Journal * > > In the same article in the WSJ is a graph showing the comparison of > Swedish death rates to those of the other so-called Nordic wonders". [*Figure > 1*]. > > But there is another general problem in reporting crude death rates as > has been more or less standard. Assigning 'cause of death' to COIVD has led > many epidemiologist to more precise terminology. We will return to these > authors later, but for example here is the view of some Swedish based > epidemiologists: > > > > "According to a recent report by WHO, Sweden is sharing the 12th place > with the US on the list of countries with most COVID-19 deaths per million > inhabitants (1). However, absolute death counts can be misleading and age- > and sex-specific death rates should be used when comparing countries in > order to account for differences in underlying age structure of both cases > and the total population.COVID-19 death counts are inherently uncertain and > unappropriated to compare between countries because they depend on the > testing strategy in the population, on the principles for assigning cause > of death, on whether only hospitalized deaths are considered or all deaths, > etc." *Modig K, Ahlbom A, Ebeling M > Excess mortality from covid-19. Weekly excess death rates by age and sex > for Sweden and its most affected region.. Eur J Public Health. 2020 Nov > 10:ckaa218. doi: 10.1093/eurpub/ckaa218. Online ahead of print. PMID: > 33169145* > > In any case, the overtly obvious rising death rate in Sweden is becoming > (or actually has become) a burgeoning kerfuffle in the Swedish population. > They are increasingly alarmed about this 'non-aggressive' behaviour of > clinicians. I realise many leftists disdain 'Time Magazine" - but it has > been perceptive on this matter. What was not acceptable by many liberals > and those on the Right for Boris Johnson’s government, or Trump’s > government to say - was for Swedish leaders!: > > "From early on, the Swedish government seemed to treat it as a foregone > conclusion that many people would die. The country’s Prime Minister Stefan > Löfven told the Swedish newspaper *Dagens Nyheter* on April 3, “We will > have to count the dead in thousands. It is just as well that we prepare for > it.” In July, as the death count reached 5,500, Löfven said that the > “strategy is right, I am completely convinced of that.” > > *Kelly > Bjorklund & Andrew Ewing ‘The Swedish COVID-19 Response Is a Disaster. It > Shouldn’t Be a Model for the Rest of the World'; Time Magazine, October 14, > 2020.* > > > > > Time magazine shows data from a study in JAMA comparing world-wide death > rates, and strongly convinces that the USA and Sweden share a common > pattern - of neglecting to react adequately to bring down high death rates > (figures 2 and 3). As Der Spiegel asks: "Hat Schweden die Alten geopfert? Has > Sweden sacrificed the old?" - and answers 'yes'. > > *Dietmar Pieper Berichte von Angehörigen und Recherchen zeigen, dass viele > Covid-19-Opfer in Schweden noch leben könnten. "Man hat nicht versucht, ihr > Leben zu retten", sagt ein Virologe. 09.10.2020). * > > > > > > *(2) The Concept of Excess Mortality - and what it shows in Sweden* > > Some epidemiologists do appear to be trying to minimise the death rates > from COVID in - for example Sweden. One particularly famous example of such > an individual Prof. is John Ioannidis based in Stanford and Berlin. He > presents data for a statistic called "relative Risk" of death. This - as > its name implies shows the comparison of a rate as a function relative to > another. Thus in Figure 3 the relative rates of people over 65 is compared > to that of people under 65 in various countries. This certainly shows that > the rates of death are much higher in the elderly (by now not very much of > a surprise), including in Sweden (figure 4). However the conclusions that > he draws are that: "People <65 years old have very small risks of > COVID-19 death even in pandemic epicenters and deaths for people <65 years > without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. > Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly > individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic." > *Ioannidis JPA, Axfors C, > Contopoulos-Ioannidis DG Population-level COVID-19 mortality risk for > non-elderly individuals overall and for non-elderly individuals without > underlying diseases in pandemic epicenters. Environ Res. 2020 > Sep;188:109890. * > > > > I believe this is trying to under-estimate the rates for younger people. > > > > Here for example is a more specific age categorised death rate for Sweden, > showing figures plotted against the median values of the prior years > averaged between 2015-2019. Again it can be seen that there is a higher > mortality for the older sections of the population. But - it is also seen > in the years above the age of 50 years. *Modig K, Ahlbom A, Ebeling M > Ibid.* > > > > The rates in Figure 5 are described as 'excess mortality' but are > categorised by age and sex-specific rates - rather than absolute rates. > This is defined by other workers as" Excess mortality, the gap between > the deaths from any cause and the historical average for the same place and > time of year, (which) offers a more comprehensive way to measure the > mortality linked to the COVID-19 outbreak". These authors also describe a > clear excess mortality for all causes of death across age groups in the > Stockholm area (Figure 6) which are clearly falling disproportionately on > the low income group. > > *Calderón-Larrañaga A, Vetrano DL, Rizzuto D, Bellander T, Fratiglioni L, > Dekhtyar S.* > > *'High excess mortality in areas with young and socially vulnerable > populations during the COVID-19 outbreak in Stockholm Region, Sweden.' BMJ > Glob Health. 2020 Oct;5(10):e003595. doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003595*. > > > > *3) Do masks and social distancing work to reduce rates of mortality? * > > I have written about the clear linkage between COVID deniers and open > fascists such as those in Germany of the AFD before (*Looking Under the > Hood – The Instrumentation of a Pandemic > **http://ml-today.com/2020/11/30/covid-denial-fascism/ > <http://ml-today.com/2020/11/30/covid-denial-fascism/> at: > http://ml-today.com/2020/11/30/covid-denial-fascism/ > <http://ml-today.com/2020/11/30/covid-denial-fascism/>**).* But I did not > think in that article necessary to drill down into high level evidence. But > once more some 'leftists' are disputing the evidence. So here is some > evidence as opposed to opinion. Firstly a clear relationship between > wearing of masks and reducing death rates in countries with available data. > The authors write: > > > > "In a multivariable analysis of 196 countries, the duration of the > outbreak in the country, and the proportion of the population aged 60 years > or older were positively associated with per-capita mortality, whereas > duration of mask-wearing by the public was negatively associated with > mortality (all P < 0.001)." > > *Christopher T. Leffler, Edsel Ing, Joseph D. Lykins, Matthew C. Hogan, > Craig A. McKeown, and Andrzej Grzybowski Association of Country-wide > Coronavirus Mortality with Demographics, Testing, Lockdowns, and Public > Wearing of Masks Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2020 Dec; 103(6): 2400–2411. PMCID: > PMC7695060* > > > > Finally when social distancing policies are graded into a scale, there is > a statistically significant relationship between both the incidence of > COVID and the mortality from it. This study was done in the USA, but > although it has an NIH approval, it is not yet peer-reviewed. However, it > appears that the more socially distanced policies resulting in lower death. > > > > > *Conclusions:*Any attempt to downplay the effects of Swedish health > policy - or should we say the failure of Swedish health policy - and a > relationship to higher infection rates or death rate s- is a white-wash. > > > -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Groups.io Links: You receive all messages sent to this group. View/Reply Online (#4995): https://groups.io/g/marxmail/message/4995 Mute This Topic: https://groups.io/mt/79259395/21656 -=-=- POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. -=-=- Group Owner: [email protected] Unsubscribe: https://groups.io/g/marxmail/leave/8674936/1316126222/xyzzy [[email protected]] -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
