Thank you Chris for your comments on my interview. In your response you mainly address two issues - transparency and repression. I hope to briefly respond below although I apologises in advanced for the rough and rushed nature of my response.
You say you are not sure "transparency" (your quote marks) is a real issue because a) regardless of whether the CNE published the full results, this would not have stopped the opposition crying fraud, b) the Supreme Court is looking into the full results anyways, and c) the CNE will "presumably" publish the full results soon. But each of the three points you raise have serious issues with them. To start, why would the Electoral Chamber of the Supreme Court investigating the result change anything? If the opposition was going to cry fraud despite the CNE publishing the full results, then why would it listen to the Supreme Court, which is even more stacked with Chavistas than the CNE (the composition of the CNE was an outcome of recent negotiations, unlike the court) and was responsible not only for upholding the ban on Maria Corina Machado running but also stripped basically every non-Maduro left party of its electoral registration (PCV, PPT, Tupamaros, etc)? In reality, Maduro taking the issue to the Supreme Court is largely a delaying tactic in which (as he has done so many times before) he hopes to use the time to wear down and crush protests and use the court's ruling to say everyone who disagrees is now acting outside the law and constitution. Maduro's aim is seeking to muddy the waters, hide behind state institutions (courts/police/military) and keep hidden basic information that all citizens should have a legal right to see. Contrast all this, for example, with how the PSUV responded to the opposition's fraud claims in the 2013 presidential elections: then, the PSUV turned to the people and published its own tally sheets, signed by the opposition, to publicly prove to everyone that Maduro had won. The response was the polar opposite to what Maduro is doing now. As to publishing the full results, this is not just desirable but a legal mandate, which the CNE is not abiding by. This is important not because it might change the opposition's mind (it wont). It is important because with each passing days, doubts over the elections and the validity of any results the CNE eventually publishes grow. The obvious question people are asking (including even some Chavista voters now) is: why don't they just publish the full results if they have nothing to hide? That is why we saw protests from across the political spectrum and not just the traditional right opposition - ordinary working class people, with no organic ties to opposition parties (even if some did vote for opposition candidates) are demanding their vote be respected and that state institutions be held accountable. Only be understanding this dynamic can we understand the nature and purpose of the repression that has occurred and continues to occur. According to the OVSC, 80% of the 192 protests that occurred with the first 48 hours after the election were in working class barrios. It was not the traditional middle class municipalities but rather the municipalities of Libertador (in the west) and Sucre (in the far east covering the working class barrio of Petare) where most of the protests (and repression) occurred. https://www.observatoriodeconflictos.org.ve/actualidad/represion-a-los-pobres-en-venezuela It is true that crimes were committed. Surgentes notes: "In some of these demonstrations there were also acts of violence against militants of the Bolivarian Revolution, houses of the governing party, as well as against monuments and the headquarters of public establishments, one of the most serious of which was the aggression against Psuv militants and a community radio station in Carora (Lara state). Surgentes has also heard reports of houses of pro-Chávez militants being marked with chalk or paint, as an expression of political hatred and a threat of future aggression. The life, integrity and security of these comrades is at high risk." https://surgentes.org.ve/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Comunicado-Surgentes-coyuntura-electoral.pdf But the level of violence seen to date is no way in relation to the scale of the arrests. Surgentes notes: "As of 31.07.24, according to information reported by the Attorney General of the Republic, 1,062 people had been detained for these acts, charged with serious crimes such as terrorism, treason and incitement to hatred; a significant number of them are under 18 years of age. It should be stressed that these criminal offences (frequently used by the state to criminalise dissidents, opponents and critics) have a very limited definition of the alleged offence, leaving their interpretation to the discretion of the judicial authorities, as well as excessively high penalties. This makes them, de jure, contrary to human rights standards." Here is how Maduro described the situations: "We have 2,000 prisoners captured and from there they going to (the prisons) Tocorón and Tocuyito, maximum punishment, justice. This time there is not going to be forgiveness, this time there is not going to be forgiveness, this time what there is going to be is Tocorón .... They all confess, all of them, because there has been a strict legal process, led by the Attorney General's Office, with full guarantees and they are all convicted and confessed ... I am preparing two prisons, which I should have ready in 15 days, they were already being prepared (Tocorón and Tocuyito), and all the guarimberos (violent demonstrators) are going to’ these prisons" https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2024/08/03/maduro-dice-que-hay-2000-detenidos-en-protestas-contra-el-resultado-de-las-presidenciales/ According to Maduro, all 2000 arrested have "confessed" and will be punished in specially prepared prisons. The only thing Maduro forgot to add in his boast is that many have ben tried in terrorism courts without access to legal defence and that among those jailed and current held incommunicado are over 100 adolescents. And the repression continues - on Saturday the barrio of Petare awoke completely militarised in order to stop neighbours participating in the protests called for that day while protesters were arrested even before the protest started https://www.aporrea.org/ddhh/n395837.html The scale of the protest in the immediate aftermath of the elections in traditional bastions of support for Chavismo were arguably unprecedented. That is why the government is responding so strongly. That protests are concentrated there does not prove fraud occurred or that Maduro lost. But the problem is there is no way of verifying this if basic information and audits that the CNE is legal bound to do are not being implemented (and no ruling by the Supreme Court will change that). Faced with this scenario, it seems obvious to me that, without giving an iota of support to the opposition, it is correct to support "calls for transparency and for the CNE to present its tally sheets to the Venezuelan people" and to demand and end to the repression. None of which is in contradiction to opposing US intervention or sanctions. In fact the two go hand-in-hand. As Ociel Lopez notes in this interview https://www.aporrea.org/ideologia/n395836.html Why does Chavismo find it so difficult to accept not being in the government? One could speak from ideological traces to the way in which Chávez himself proposed politics at the time. But I would say that the issue of sanctions becomes especially alive. It is not the same to leave the government if you are sanctioned, if your head has an arrest warrant, and that of your family. That part must be evaluated. -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Groups.io Links: You receive all messages sent to this group. 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