The Trump effect | Links

In 2016, both the liberal establishment and liberal left received a very 
serious lesson. But they did not learn from it. Worse, they doubled down on 
implementing principles of political correctness against the backdrop of 
dismantling the welfare state and pursuing market reforms. The result has been 
an objective intensification of class contradictions, with no political 
representation for the interests of the lower classes. This gap made it 
possible for the growth of right-wing populism, exploiting mass discontent but 
directing it not against dominant economic interests, but against ethnic 
minorities, liberal intellectuals, external enemies, and so on. Of course, 
there is nothing new here. This is exactly how fascists in Italy and Nazis in 
Germany ran their campaigns in the 1920s — and successfully so. But there are 
two significant differences.

The first is that in the 1920s, there was a strong leftist movement represented 
by Communists and social democrats. Yes, they quarrelled and obstructed each 
other. But they were strong and popular. Today, no such movement exists.

The second difference is that in the 1930s, the far right managed to implement 
a program of regulating capitalism. Now, however, their program boils down to 
economic protectionism combined with creating a “free market for their own”. At 
best, they might remove cheap migrant labour from the workforce and close 
markets to cheap Asian goods. Such a program will not work.

The paradox is that Trumpist economic policy is likely to destabilise global 
and US capitalism. Theoretically, this (along with the demoralisation of the 
left and classic liberals) potentially creates space for new class-based left 
forces. But potential and realisation are two different things. And let us not 
forget the prophecy of the Strugatsky brothers: “After the grey ones come the 
black ones.”4 If the political vacuum representing the working majority is not 
filled by an adequate leftist force, the consequences will be tragic.

And if anyone thinks “the worse, the better,” they are also mistaken. Recall 
the slogan of the German Communists in 1932: “Lass Hitler kommen, nach kommen 
wir” (“Let Hitler come, we will come after”). Unfortunately, the price of such 
illusions can be unbearably high.



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