There are various possibilities to win - starting from weakening Israel due to mass global solidarity movement and decline of U.S. support, the weakening of the Israeli's Abraham alliance (see the rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE), wars between Israel and Arab/Muslim states to another wave of Arab Revolution. All this will probably not happen in the near future.

However, the whole discussion is not about long-term perspectives for the liberation but about who fights against oppression and who capitulates without fighting. The Palestinian resistance has choosen the first option, the Chavista regime the second. Even if you disagree with the strategy of Hamas and others, you can not deny that they choose the path of fighting instead of capitulating and living in wealth as servants of U.S. imperialism.

Am 13.02.2026 um 20:17 schrieb Mark Baugher:


On Feb 13, 2026, at 09:09, RKOB via groups.io <[email protected]> wrote:

According to this logic the Algerians, the Vietnamese, the Chinese and many other oppressed peoples could have avoided millions of death if they would have followed the "wise" strategy of capitulation and bowing to the imperialist invaders!

When Bush invaded Iraq in 2003, people like Wolfowitz, Perle, Krystol, Rice and others said that the reconstruction of Iraq would be just like the reconstruction of Nazi Germany. But Germany was a place where bourgeois democracy had previously existed, it had the experience of the Weimar Republic, and the people had previously established civil rights after more than a century of popular and working-class struggles. Serious analysis would start with the differences between those very different places. We should look for underlying historical forces and not rely on superficial comparisons.

How can we tell the difference between an adventure and a revolutionary uprising? I would say that the masses of people determine that, and organizations hopefully exist that can lead them when they do. And hopefully the masses have organizations under their control, such as independent trade unions. It has happened that a guerrilla action or military assault triggers a revolutionary uprising. That is good luck. Our strategies can benefit from luck but shouldn't assume it.

I didn't see a mass uprising of Palestinians before, during or after the Al-Aqsa Flood. And I personally still cannot envision what Palestinian victory would look like after 10/7. Can you?

Mark




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