Bush ratings continue to drop to new lows


    NBC/WSJ poll: Majority now prefer a Democrat-controlled Congress

By Mark Murray
Political reporter
NBC News
Updated: 7:36 p.m. ET March 15, 2006

WASHINGTON - The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll might sound 
like a broken record, but the tune grows louder as congressional midterm 
elections get closer and closer: President Bush is once again facing the 
lowest job approval rating of his presidency, the lowest percentage of 
Americans who believe the country is headed in the right direction, and 
an electorate that greatly prefers a Democratic-controlled Congress over 
a Republican-controlled one.

Yet the poll also shows something else that goes beyond the November 
midterm elections: A strong majority believes Bush is experiencing a 
long-term setback from which he’s unlikely to recover. “He’s losing his 
grip on governance,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who 
conducted this survey with Republican Bill McInturff. “It’s now a sense 
that we’ve seen the best that he’s going to produce as president of the 
United States.”

Despite this grim outlook for the Republican Party, it still holds 
advantages over Democrats — albeit by narrower margins — when it comes 
to Iraq and homeland security. And that could benefit Republicans in 
November, especially if national security issues dominate the landscape, 
as they did in 2002 and 2004.

According to the poll, only 37 percent approve of Bush’s job performance 
— his lowest mark ever in the survey. That’s a two-point drop since the 
last NBC/Journal poll, and a one-point decline from his previous low of 
38 percent last November. In addition, just 26 percent believe the 
nation is headed in the right direction, a tie from the previous Bush 
administration low, which also occurred in November.



What’s more, 58 percent believe Bush is facing a long-term setback from 
which he’s unlikely to improve. Twenty-six percent think he’s 
experiencing only a short-term setback, and 11 percent say he’s dealing 
with no setback at all.

The last NBC/Journal poll, which was released on the eve of Bush’s State 
of the Union address in late January, had shown a slight uptick in the 
president’s handling of the economy, foreign affairs and Iraq. But since 
then, a new round of embarrassments, miscalculations and violence in 
Iraq all have rocked the administration.

NBC News-Wall Street Journal Poll responses

Click here to read a sampling of the latest NBC/WSJ poll 
<http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11843659/>

In February, Vice President Dick Cheney accidentally shot a hunting 
companion in the face at a South Texas ranch, which created a weeklong 
distraction for the White House. Soon after, voters and Congress became 
furious at the news that the administration approved a ports sale to a 
United Arab Emirates state-run firm; the deal was later scuttled. And 
then a wave of sectarian violence between Sunnis and Shiites erupted in 
Iraq.

Indeed, it’s the situation in Iraq that appears to be at the heart of 
Bush’s problems. According to the poll — which was taken of 1,005 adults 
from March 10-13, and which has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 
percentage points — 61 percent disapprove of Bush’s handling of the 
situation. Moreover, 57 percent are less confident that the war in Iraq 
will come to a successful conclusion, which is a seven-point increase 
since December. And 61 percent say the United States should reduce the 
number of troops there, while just 31 percent want to maintain the 
current troop level.

“Everything comes back around to the war,” Hart says. “That seems to set 
up the president’s basic problem and his basic challenge.”

Republican pollster McInturff puts it this way: “It is hard to pivot … 
when every day the core decision in your presidency is Iraq” — and the 
situation there appears grim.

Looking ahead to the midterm elections in November, the poll shows that 
50 percent prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress versus 37 percent who 
want it controlled by Republicans. McInturff says it’s a “problematic 
environment” for the Republicans. “You are working harder as a 
Republican [candidate] because you are pushing uphill.”

But Republicans still have some advantages — beyond their campaign cash 
and the small number of competitive races this fall —that could benefit 
them in November. In the poll, they hold the advantage over Democrats on 
Iraq and homeland security. (However, Democrats have the edge on health 
care, the economy, taxes and ethics in government.)

In addition, Hart says the poll shows that Americans don’t dislike Bush 
as much as they dislike his policies. And so a change in policy — 
especially regarding Iraq — could benefit Bush and the GOP.

“The upside for the president is, Can he find a way to get the troops 
out of Iraq and begin to make the public feel a lot more comfortable 
about that?”

/Mark Murray covers politics for NBC News. NBC’s Huma Zaidi contributed 
to this article./

-- 
“Peace is not the absence of war. It is a virtue, a state of mind, a 
disposition for benevolence, confidence and justice”


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