http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-decline-and-fall-of-the-text-messag
e-2012-11-15

One of the ironies of cellphone use in recent years has been the decline
of voice minutes in favor of text messages and emails. Phones calls
became a secondary function of phones. But now Americans are sending
fewer texts as well, leaving some to wonder, What are people using their
phones for? 

Enlarge Image For the first time ever, the number of texts sent by U.S.
customers dropped, according to a report published this week by Chetan
Sharma (see US Mobile Data Market Update Q3 2012 ), an independent
mobile analyst and consultant. Though the decline is slight - down 3% to
an average of 678 texts a month in the third quarter - it hints at a
major shift in mobile communication. 

As the traditional SMS text message falls out of favor, all those LOLs
are probably just moving onto other platforms, such as Apple's iMessage
and other services which transit missives over the Internet, experts
say. "Customers are moving onto more advanced ways to text," says
technology analyst Jeff Kagan. 

Free apps like Viber ( viber.com ), Jaxtr SMS ( jaxtrsms.com ) and
iMessage ( www.apple.com ) offer more features than traditional texts
and tend to be cheaper to use. 

Texts represent a major source of revenue for wireless carriers, which
sometimes charge as much as 20 cents for a single text message -
transmissions said to cost the companies just a few cents. In fact,
earlier this year, AT&T  CEO Randall Stephenson expressed his concern
about the decline in text messages. "You lie awake at night worrying
about what is that which will disrupt your business model," he said.
"Apple iMessage is a classic example. If you're using iMessage, you're
not using one of our messaging services, right?" (AT&T's wireless-data
business remains "robust" and saw an annual increase of 18% to $6.6
billion in the third quarter of 2012, according to Mark Siegel, a
company spokesman.) 

The rise of hybrid voice/instant messaging services may be another death
knell for the humble text. Google Voice allows subscribers to send and
receive free text messages on their mobile phones as long as all texts
are sent and received through each user's Google Voice number rather
than the number provided by the carrier; Google Voice users can also
send free texts by speaking into the phone. Likewise, Apple's voice
activation service Siri will transcribe voice messages via iMessage -
but only if the recipient has iMessage installed too. "There's less need
to spend an extra $20 or $30 a month on text messaging plans," says
Linda Barrabee, an analyst with market researcher NPD Group. 

Since messaging is now being done over the Internet, wireless carriers
are looking for ways to milk more revenue out of data plans, experts
say. "Texting has been a very profitable business for the carriers,"
Barrabee says. Verizon Wireless and AT&T are phasing out unlimited data
plans and, earlier this year, introduced shared data plans with
unlimited talk and texting. Sprint and T-Mobile, meanwhile, still have
unlimited data plans. What's more, data is getting more expensive.
Faster 4G LTE connections being will boost data usage to 1.2 gigabytes a
month from 500GB on slower 3G connections, according to Validas, which
analyzes wireless bills. 

But consumers are getting savvier at managing their data usage, experts
say. Some 80% of Android and iPhone users accessed their data over Wi-Fi
in September 2012, according to a recent report by NPD Group. They are
more dependent on their smartphones and using them on Wi-Fi, Barrabee
says. In May, Time Warner, Comcast, Cablevision, Cox Communications and
Bright House Networks teamed up to offer their customers access to over
50,000 Wi-Fi hot spots.

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