June 28, 2006

EMI Raises Bid for Warner and Rejects Counteroffer
By HEATHER TIMMONS and JEREMY W. PETERS
NY Times

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/28/business/media/28cnd-music.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print


LONDON, June 26 — Someday, EMI Group and Warner Music Group are going to 
pair up, most music industry experts predict.

What no one can figure out is exactly when or who will own whom if they 
finally do.

Those were some of the questions that arose today, after EMI said it had 
increased its bid for Warner to $4.6 billion, from $4.2 billion in May, and 
also said Warner had turned the tables and bid about $4.6 billion for EMI 
on Tuesday.

Neither company is welcoming the other's bid. EMI said today that Warner's 
proposal is "wholly unacceptable."

Warner issued a statement today calling its offer "value enhancing to EMI 
shareholders."

But if the companies do join forces, the end product would be one of the 
largest music libraries in history. Warner, based in New York, is the 
world's fourth-biggest music company, and EMI, based in London, is the 
third-largest.

The two companies, the only major music labels that are not part of a 
larger media conglomerate, have tried to negotiate a deal for several 
years, and even agreed in 2000, only to have it killed by regulators. This 
round of talks has been live since the beginning of May, when EMI first 
made a $28.50-a-share offer for Warner. EMI is now offering $31 a share in 
cash for Warner.

EMI's artists include Norah Jones, Coldplay and Radiohead. Music industry 
analysts feel the 75-year-old company would be a good match for Warner, 
which includes Sean "P. Diddy" Combs's label, Bad Boy Records, as well as 
artists from Madonna to Green Day.

Combined, the two companies would have about 25 percent of global music 
sales, just slightly less than Universal, and ahead of Sony BMG, according 
to figures from the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry, 
a London-based trade group. Analysts estimate there are several hundred 
million dollars in costs that could saved if the groups combined.

What they two companies cannot seem to figure out is how to get together.

"It's a bit of a staring match, isn't it?," said Patrick Wellington, an 
analyst with Morgan Stanley in London. "EMI seems absolutely determined 
that they should be in charge of each deal. They don't want a merger 
because they think they're doing a good job, and that they're the best 
music managers around."

The negotiations pit EMI's chairman, Eric Nicoli, against Edgar Bronfman 
Jr., the executive who spoiled Mr. Nicoli's last attempt to buy Warner 
Music by amassing a team of private equity players to buy the unit himself 
in 2003 from Time Warner. Mr. Bronfman's financial backers include Thomas 
H. Lee Partners and Bain Capital.

There have been several back and forth bids in this go-round. On June 14, 
five weeks after EMI bid for Warner, Warner approached EMI with a bid 
valued at 315 pence ($5.77) a share in cash, EMI said today. Then Tuesday 
night, Warner increased that offer to 320 pence ($5.82) a share.

EMI jumped 23.75 pence, or 8.4 percent, to 307.50 pence today in London 
trading. On the New York Stock Exchange this afternoon, Warner Music was 
trading up $1.06, or 3.9 percent, to $28.29.

EMI said today that its improved bid would be paid entirely in cash, and 
that the money would be raised by a stock sale, debt and selling off some 
music publishing assets.

Noting that Warner's most recent offer was essentially the same offer that 
EMI put on the table, Mr. Wellington said he thought EMI would end up 
purchasing Warner, not the other way around. If Warner were more serious 
about bidding for EMI, Mr. Wellington added, they would have sweetened 
their deal more.

"I think the more likely deal is EMI for Warner," he said. Because a 
combination of the two companies would create one of the world's largest 
music libraries, analysts said part of the delay in completing a deal might 
be placing a value on what each company owns.

"A lot of the valuation is being based on the library, and that's very hard 
to value when the profitability of music is becoming less and less per 
song," said Ivan Feinseth, director of research with Matrix USA.


=================================================
George Antunes                    Voice (713) 743-3923
Associate Professor               Fax   (713) 743-3927
Political Science                    Internet: antunes at uh dot edu
University of Houston
Houston, TX 77204-3011         



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