Better spy satellite system needed Reliance on U.S. intelligence on missile launch shows need for improvement
By Tetsuo Hidaka and Koichi Yasuda Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers July 31, 2006 http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/20060731TDY03003.htm The government plans to launch the nation's third information-gathering satellite on Sept. 10 to be followed by its fourth in January or February next year to complete a four-satellite system primarily for monitoring North Korea's military activities. If brought to completion, however, the system would likely fall short of detecting a real-time missile launch by North Korea, and it seems more must be done to make Japan's antimissile system flawless. The launch in September will be an "optical sensor satellite" equipped with a high-performance telescope and camera for photographing objects on the earth's surface. The first of the two planned optical sensor satellites was put into orbit in March 2003, along with a "synthetic aperture radar satellite" (SAR). Using microwaves, SAR is capable of monitoring topography and objects regardless of weather conditions. The optical intelligence satellite can identify an object up to one meter in length and can distinguish, for instance, a truck from a passenger car. But it cannot take photos at night or through clouds. SAR, by contrast, can observe areas under cloud cover and reportedly is able to tell to some degree what material an object is made of. The two spy satellites currently in operation are both polar orbiters circling the globe at altitudes of 400 to 600 kilometers. If the fourth, a SAR satellite, is launched in 2007 as planned, it will complete the four-satellite reconnaissance system, and the country will be able to monitor any point on Earth at least once a day, officials said. It will therefore become possible for Japan to monitor day-to-day changes in North Korean missile-launching sites. The problem, however, is if the system will be effective at the moment of a missile launch, which would depend on the weather and positions of the satellites at the time, officials said on condition of anonymity. Toshiyuki Shikata, a professor of national security at Teikyo University, said, "Increasing the number of satellites to four will be of high significance, since it would mean substantial increases in Japan's security-related information, in addition to ensuring a backup arrangement in the event of problems with any one of the four." "But the system can't be said to be sufficient," Shikata added, "as this country should have at least eight satellites to be able to take photos [of missile sites] twice a day." === Heavily dependent on U.S. When North Korea made multiple missile launches on July 5, the bulk of information Japan got on the launches was from the United States. Before the launches, senior officials at the Cabinet Office and the Defense Agency were provided by the U.S. military in late May with several satellite photos. They showed clearly two heavy-duty vehicles each loaded with a large ballistic missile at the Taepdong-2 missile base in Musudanri in North Hamgyong Province, according to the officials. The photos were accompanied by messages based on analyses by U.S. military experts stating the missiles were most likely Taepodong-2s, but launches did not seem imminent. The very moments of the missile launches were caught by a U.S. satellite in geosynchronous orbit. The satellite is designed for missile defense and is equipped with a sensor capable of detecting heat generated by a missile launch. It can also estimate the size of the missile and its range, the officials said. In stark contrast with Japan, the United States has orbited more than 100 satellites, at least 15 of which are reportedly for intelligence-gathering purposes, they said. As experts put it, the U.S. satellites can identify objects as small as 8 to 9 centimeters in size if weather conditions are ideal. The United States has five early-warning satellites, including one for backup purposes, keeping watch over North Korea around the clock, they said. The officials, however, noted that pieces of information relating to the July 5 missile launch were taken by Japan's satellites, though the majority of information came from U.S. forces and satellite photo companies. Japan's capability to obtain satellite photos on its own is of high importance, senior officials at the Defense Agency said. "The United States, depending on its own convenience, may process information it provides to Japan," one of the officials noted. "If this country can confirm accurately that the photos have been altered, the attitude of the United States will be sure to change," he added. === Many hurdles lay ahead Kensuke Ebata, a military affairs critic, has warn that "the introduction of a missile defense system can't work well without early-warning satellites to detect the moment of a missile launch." Given that a North Korean missile could reach Japan in about 10 minutes, it would be imperative for this country, in order to shoot down missiles, to be able to get information on the very moment of launch. There are, however, a number of problems that must be cleared before Japan can have and use effectively early-warning satellites. One is the problem of costs: a single early-warning satellite requires an estimated 300 billion yen in budget outlays, compared with 200 billion yen for all four intelligence-gathering satellites. Another hurdle is a 1969 resolution by the Diet to limit the nation's space program to peaceful purposes. Some have argued that plans for introducing early-warning satellites violate that resolution because the government has so far been on record saying "peaceful purposes" means the same as having the purposes of the nation's space programs limited to "nonmilitary" uses. There have recently been moves among Liberal Democratic Party legislators for a law to empower the use of space programs for military purposes, if it is within the bounds of self-defense. Currently, only the United States and Russia have early-warning satellites. If Japan acquires its own system, there could be adverse reactions from countries, such as China, that are wary of Japan expanding its space program for military purposes, the officials noted. Furthermore, an increase in the number of satellites must be coupled with the development personnel to take charge of analyzing data from them. The Cabinet Office's Satellite Information Center, which analyzes satellite photos, has about 300 people, including those engaged in clerical jobs. The figure is far smaller than that for the United States, where satellite photo analyzers, though the exact figure is kept secret, are considered to be several thousand, the officials said. ================================ George Antunes, Political Science Dept University of Houston; Houston, TX 77204 Voice: 713-743-3923 Fax: 713-743-3927 antunes at uh dot edu Reply with a "Thank you" if you liked this post. _____________________________ MEDIANEWS mailing list [email protected] To unsubscribe send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
