After Adelphia: The New Landscape of the Cable Industry

By George Winslow
MultiChannel News

7/31/2006

http://www.multichannel.com/index.asp?layout=articlePrint&articleid=CA6357343


The U.S. cable map has just changed. After 15 months of delays and 
regulatory wrangling, the $17 billion deal through which Comcast Corp. and 
Time Warner Cable will acquire Adelphia Communications Corp. and, at the 
conclusion, swap a number of systems, is expected to close today.

This is how the numbers now add up:

Time Warner Cable systems pass 27 million homes, up from about 19.8 
million. The operator counts 14.5 million basic subscribers, up from 11 
million. About 85% of those subscribers will be located in just five 
regions, or "clusters": Southern California, where it will now serve 2.4 
million households, up from 0.7 million; Texas, where it will serve 2.6 
million, up from 2.0 million; the Carolinas, at 1.9 million, up from 1.7 
million; Ohio, at 2.3 million, up from 1.5 million; and New York, at 3.1 
million, up from 2.6 million.

Comcast, meanwhile, will expand its total number of subscribers to 23.3 
million, up from about 21.5 million in the first quarter of this year. It 
strengthens its presence in markets such as Washington, D.C.; Boston; 
Minneapolis-St. Paul.; major Florida cities and Pittsburgh.

How will the industry now look, physically?

The map on these pages shows how the deal will transform the cable 
landscape in the top 20 markets in the United States.

The largest cable operator, Comcast, will continue to dominate the map with 
operations in 16 of the top 20 markets, serving nearly 14.4 million 
subscribers in them. Time Warner Cable, the second-largest operator and the 
third-largest multichannel television provider (after Comcast and DirecTV 
Inc.), will have systems in the top two markets and nine of the top 20 
markets. It will now serve 5.7 million subscribers in those markets.

How will this change how they operate? See "Analysis" on page 8.

Seattle-Tacoma
Comcast         1,031,000
Charter         44,000
Time Warner     1,000

Boston
Comcast         1,938,000
Charter         161,000
Time Warner     16,000

Minneapolis-St. Paul
Comcast         539,000
Time Warner     210,000
Charter         152,000
Mediacom        28,000

Detroit
Comcast         982,000
Bright House    115,000
Charter         39,000

Denver
Comcast         666,000
Charter         16,000
Time Warner     5,000

New York
Cablevision     3,019,000
Time Warner     1,380,000
Comcast         721,000
Charter         70,000

Chicago
Comcast         1,761,0,000
Mediacom        10,000

Cleveland-Akron
Time Warner     855,000
Comcast         83,000
Cox     75,000

Philadelphia
Comcast         1,907,000
Charter         8,000

Washington, D.C.
Comcast         960,000
Cox     269,000
Charter         25,000

Atlanta
Comcast         600,000
Charter         239,000

Orlando
Bright House    550,000
Comcast         116,000

Sacramento
Comcast         535,000
Charter         67,000

Phoenix
Cox     607,000
Charter         1,000

Miami-Ft. Lauderdale
Comcast         740,000
Charter         50,000

Los Angeles
Time Warner     1,920,000
Cox     482,000
Charter         443,000
Mediacom        21,000

San Francisco & Bay Area
Comcast         1,609,000
Charter         17,000
Mediacom        17,000

Dallas-Ft. Worth
Time Warner     580,000
Charter         173,000
Cox     20,000

Houston
Time Warner     753,000
Charter         21,000
Cox     11,000

Tampa-St. Petersburg
Bright House    740,000
Comcast         204,000

Source: Oppenheimer & Co. Figures reflect the completion of the Adelphia 
acquisition and system swaps between Comcast and Time Warner Cable. 
Starting counts of subscribers, as of 12/31/2005, are based on company 
documents and Oppenheimer estimates.


================================
George Antunes, Political Science Dept
University of Houston; Houston, TX 77204
Voice: 713-743-3923  Fax: 713-743-3927
antunes at uh dot edu



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