Aurigid meteor shower to peak Sept. 1
Western states have better chance of seeing trail of dust from Comet Kiess
By Joe Rao
Skywatching columnist, Space.com
Updated: 2:38 p.m. CT Aug 17, 2007
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20320625/
The Perseid meteor shower has come and gone, but that doesn't mean that
there aren't any more good meteor displays to look forward to. In fact,
another potentially good shower is just around the corner, scheduled to
reach its peak during the early hours of Saturday, Sept. 1: the Aurigid
meteors.
The Aurigids get their name from the constellation of Auriga the
Charioteer. The meteors appear to emanate from a spot in the sky near the
bright yellowish star Capella in Auriga. The Aurigids, however, are rarely
mentioned in most astronomy guidebooks because they are hardly worth
mentioning in any given year.
Then why bother about a shower that almost nobody has heard of and that's
due this year just days after a bright full moon?
Because in 2007, these unheralded Aurigids are this summer's wild card.
Unlike the steady and reliable Perseids, little or no activity is usually
seen from the Aurigids. Yet, every once in a great while a short-lived
outburst of bright meteors has been reported from the Aurigid shower. Peter
Jenniskens of the SETI Institute's Carl Sagan Center has recently shown
that these rare outbursts of Aurigid activity were caused by a comet which
ejected a trail of dust that very occasionally wanders into the Earth's path.
Outburst in 2007?
Aurigid outbursts are very infrequent, having been definitively seen on
only three occasions: in 1935, 1986 and 1994. There were very few witnesses
on each occasion, because these sudden outbursts were totally unexpected.
But now, for the first time, an alert for an impending Aurigid outburst has
been issued.
At the 26th General Assembly of the International Astronomical Union
Conference held last August in Prague, Czech Republic, Jenniskens announced
that the Aurigids would likely produce another round of unusual meteor
activity on Sept. 1 of this year. This forecast is based on calculations
made by Jenniskens and colleague Jérémie Vaubaillon of Caltech, and on
earlier work in collaboration with amateur astronomer Esko Lyytinen of Finland.
The comet responsible for the Aurigids is well known: Comet Kiess, which
last appeared in 1911. In carefully examining its movements, the meteor
scientists have determined that prior to 1911, this comet previously swept
passed the sun sometime around the year 82 BC (when Julius Caesar was
alive). Jenniskens and Vaubaillon calculated that a trail of dust released
by the comet at that 82 B.C. visit will run smack into Earth's path when
our planet passes by on September 1.
Western states favored
On Sept. 1, in the hour centered on about 11:37 UT, Earth should encounter
the trail of dust released from Comet Kiess.
That moment (4:37 a.m. PT) favors the far western parts of the United
States, where the constellation Auriga will be about two-thirds up in the
northeast sky around the time morning twilight begins. If you live in
Portland, San Francisco or Los Angeles, you'll be in perfect position to
view the meteors.
Hawaii (1:37 a.m.) and Alaska (2:37 a.m.) will also be in darkness when the
Aurigids arrive, although Auriga will appear much closer to the northeast
horizon. Like the previous outbursts, the upcoming display is expected to
be short-lived, probably lasting no more than an hour or so at most.
Unfortunately, most of the rest of North America will be out of luck,
either bathed in bright twilight or daylight when the dust trail arrives.
Jenniskens and Vaubaillon are forecasting a ZHR (zenithal hourly rate the
number of meteors seen by a single observer under a clear, dark sky with
the meteors' emanation point directly overhead) of 200. Their outlook is
very similar to Esko Lyytinen, who predicts a ZHR of 300, but with an added
uncertainty of 1 to 3. Notes Lyytinen, "This would mean something between
about 100 and 1,000. Let's hope this will be around 1,000!"
There is, however, a significant drawback: A bright gibbous moon will be
lighting up the sky on the morning of the shower.
But because the Aurigids ram through our atmosphere at exceptionally high
speeds of 41 miles per second (66 kilometers per second), and since these
particles are predicted to be rather large, the display is expected to be
rich in bright meteors, with many appearing as bright as the brightest
stars and a few perhaps approaching or even rivaling Jupiter and Venus.
"So," says Jenniskens, "the moon probably won't dim much of the display."
Probably the safest bet is to play it conservative and forecast a rate of
perhaps only 20 to 30 per hour, which is what was observed during the three
previous Aurigid outbursts. But if those meteors are as bright as the
calculations suggest they will be, it could still be a memorable, albeit
brief, show.
URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20320625/
================================
George Antunes, Political Science Dept
University of Houston; Houston, TX 77204
Voice: 713-743-3923 Fax: 713-743-3927
antunes at uh dot edu
