FAA wants to change the airline's schedules weeks in advance in the hopes of
reducing delays and congestion. This is a fantasy given the amount of "day
of" variance within our aviation system. This is variance ATC can't fix,
which will make FAA's weeks in advance predictions and actions moot.
 
As an example, my daughter flew from San Francisco to Amsterdam on Saturday.
She was scheduled to depart at 2:55 PM, but actually departed at 4:21 PM, 1
hour and 26 minutes late.
 
The SFO to AMS flight was scheduled to arrive in AMS at 10:20 AM, but
actually landed at 11:59 AM, 1 hour and 39 minutes late, thus losing an
additional 13 minutes above schedule after leaving the gate.
 
While you can read the rest if interested in the particulars, the point is
that there was no way for ATC to know about the 1 hour plus delay weeks in
advance, and certainly nothing ATC could do "day of" to correct this
problem. The result is that ATC's well planned "day of" operation would
fail, since this is certainly not the only example of non-ATC delay variance
yesterday.
 
There is absolutely nothing ATC could have done with this scenario weeks in
advance, or even "day of" to make it better.
 
Conversely, the airlines could have taken "day of" actions to mitigate the
delay to their passengers.
 
1.      Sped up the Beijing flight enroute to reduce the scheduled block
time of 11+55 by 15 to 20 minutes
2.      Built a faster turn time to reduce the SFO gate time from 1+51 by 15
to 20 minutes
3.      Sped up the Amsterdam flight enroute to reduce the scheduled block
time of 10+55 by 15 to 20 minutes
 
This would have improved the AMS arrival time by 45 minutes to 1 hour. And
if the aircraft then sped up back to SFO, it would then be close to back on
time.
 
The cause of the late SFO departure was an aircraft swap with the inbound
aircraft landing at 2:30 PM. The inbound departed Beijing at 5:12 PM, 13
minutes early, and landed into SFO at 2:30, 10 minutes late, 23 minutes
longer than schedule.
 
Michael
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
R. Michael Baiada
cell - (303) 521-6047
[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> 
 
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Revised: 20250507

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