JR has made one of the most salient comparisons he could have when he compared high prices in comics to be a death knell for the ordinary collector. While comic dealers and others may trumpet how good high prices are, anyone must realize the dangers they pose to any hobby.For instance, in an economy where 50% of the population makes less than $25,000 a year, you would have to wonder how that half could possibly afford to collect anything, and you have to go all the way up to the top 5% of the american population to get to $50,000 a year. You must also remember that the average cost of living in any good sized city in America is $48,000 it doesn't leave very much for spending money without sacrificing something else and while most collectors would happily sacrifice eating to get that comic book or poster, if that goes on too long.. one more collector gone!
Back in the middle 80's I was on the way to becoming the top dealer of original comic art & pulp illustration in the world. Only Russ Cochran was on my level. Well as time went by, I only began selling more & more expensive items. So in 1986 I took in $20,000 at San Diego Comicon (SDC from here on ) with about 400 customers. at SDC in 1990 I took in $35K, but with only 150 customers. In 1992 I did $40K with less than 100 and in 1995 I took in over $50K, but with only 40 buyers as they were the only ones who could afford my stuff. Not only that, I was finding I could not afford to buy collections anymore as the prices had become so high & the margin was getting so low that I was going to have to start taking in almost $1,000,000 a year to make the same profits I made in 1989 one $350K. In other words I would have to work 3times as hard to make no extra. But wait there's more, at the same time several bigtime collector's had either stopped collecting, or personal issues (like divorce, loss of good job etc) removed these top customers from the field resulting in difficulty achieving the same high price were getting for things like Flash Gordon sunday pages by Alex Raymond (up to $50K in 1991, same pages sold in 1996 for $15) and taking losses on those items to move them out, or be forced to hold them for 10 years to sell which is a negative.
Today comics & comic book art are in my own opinion the most overpriced hobbies there are and anything good is beyond the average collector in price. If you want to complete a collection of Spiderman in fine condition (which is the minimum condition for investment) it would cost you soemthing in the range of $150,000. A near mint, slabbed collection in 9.0 or better could get to $1,000,000. How many of you wish to be at the mercy of such a market where it's possible the only collector for that item at that price actually dictates the market price instead of you as the seller and he is very simply the ONLY collector at that level??
To me it's a simple calculation, at an auction when something sells for $50,000, but only 2 players are over $25K. When the $50K buyer wishes to sell..... the item is not worth $50K but the $25K that was forced by the presence of the $24,500 bidder and anyone who bought another copy of that poster at $50K because he thought it was worth it because of the auction price realized is in for a rude awakening... and that is as bad for the hobby as Enron stock raping a Wall Street investor.
Of course teh fact that now everyone with a Cat People poster is going to ask $12K will bring an end to the sale. That poster is worth the same $4000 today it was yesterday.. unless you are Bruce H and have very simply the best customer base there is.
About slabbing collectibles... No one mentioned the reason comics are slabbed. One reason.. investors !!
When you go to SDC and every dealer has a Spider Man #1, the only difference between them is how each individual dealer grades the same copy of the book and grading the same copy differently can mean $1000's to the dealer who grades it at very fine instead of the guy who honestly grades it at fine-very fine. So in comes a third party who will be recognized as the independent arbiter (Comics Guaranty Company or CGC) and places a grade that is recognized by all dealers without dispute, so now a collector - or more specifically an investor - can come in & know with a reasonable certainty that no dealer can try to cheapen his copy when he goes to sell it and therefore his investment is protected. What has resulted of course is that a "census" of number of issues of that title has also been able to be manufactured so everyone can see that comics in 9.8 are rare and investors value them at as much as 20x value. A Spawn #1 in 10.0 (only known copy in that grade) sold for over $2000 in 2003 which was something like 100x the listed guide value.
Another way to look at it.. the comics hobby cooked up the perfect scam to be able to reap profits they would not have otherwise been able to get. But they also froze out anyone making under $100,000 a year from becoming a serious collector. That is very bad for the hobby.
There has to be massive collectors at the bottom levels who become the bottom of the pyramid & work their way up so that years from now thety become the top collectors. With Heritage and others, the only thing that exists is the top of the pyramid today and there is no bottom, so will there be collectors moving up the pyramid becomes the question for the future and that's when the pyramid crumbles to dust.
this was just my way of saying that prices of collectibles increasing at a pace that is faster than the populace's increasing fortunes is dangerous for any hobby.... including movie posters..
Rich===========================
At 06:51 PM 12/19/04, J R wrote:
If you're a seller, don't bother to answer that question. But if you're in the majority -- someone who buys for their own collection with no real intention of selling anytime soon, if ever -- then how can this sudden, recent rash of ultra-high pricing (for even some of the more common stuff) possibly be considered "good" for you? Or for the hobby?
I've been wondering out loud about this for some time... about the absurd prices the "better" posters now seem to be going for on a regular basis. Back in the 1980's this effect swept through comic book collecting. It continued and got to the point where by now you simply must be a rich person -- not doing well, but actually *rich* -- to buy and collect the "really nice comics". A person of average means just can't buy them anymore, even if they only eat rice and beans for dinner all year.
Now I suppose some will trot out the worn old maxim about "something is only worth what someone wants to pay for it" (as if that explained or justified anything when there are so many millionaires in the world). And there will be others who say, well so what? That's just the way the capitalist cookie crumbles and trickles down on the rest of the world. But I say it's a damn shame nonetheless. Anyway, it looks like this elitist shut-out is now happening to all the "really nice movie posters" -- even the lobby cards!
What can be done about it? Nothing. But let's not all of us pretend that this trend is good for everybody, shall we?
-- JR
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