At 05:58 AM 11/9/05, Freedom Lover wrote:
I sure do. Between what happened to you, Bruce deciding to sell,
and sales down from what I can see...oh-oh...
Andrea
there you go folks.. I have no doubt that Bruce is seeing firsthand
what many of you only see from the bleachers......
the hobby IS in a freefall (yes, it is a hobby Henry)
Before ebay, before the poor economic policies of this
administration, before the terrible increase in energy prices, before
the Iraq war, before the sad reports last month that the poor
(families earning less than 12k a year) segment of our nation
increased a whopping 2.6 percent of our population (yes 2.6 % of the
population, not a 2.6 % increase over previous year)... before all
that and other factors.. like the downsizing of blue collar paychecks
while the exponential increasing of corporate management's paychecks
.. we had a vibrant hobby (yes Henry, it is a hobby)
However today, all of these factors are a combined "perfect storm"
that have conspired to undermine what we have been doing for years
Ebay is without a doubt one of the bigger factors (but dont factor
out economics). The reality is that before ebay, even ordinary items
were difficult to get except for what was advertised in trade
publications like Big Reel or Comics Buyers Guide; exhibited at
conventions across the land; results of want lists given to dealers;
and other ways... posters that today are common, had a perception of scarcity.
Ebay changed all that .. that's why we constantly see the same
posters listed again & again & again by different sellers or the same
sellers and seeing as a poster like "That's My Boy" from 1951 with
Martin & Lewis which was once a good selling poster is now something
akin to junk. The garage sale mentality has ruined the value. Then
compound that with economic disaster (low wages for the populace),
political tomfoolery, war, stratospheric energy prices (and housing
prices too) and many many factors I couldn't even begin to detail...
and you have this.. free-fall
Now there is no question that posters like Frankenstein, Forbidden
Planet, Casablanca, Maltese Falcon will only continue to have buyers
waiting.. The vast majority of posters - which are available 24/7
ad-nauseum - cannot possibly go up in value with such a large supply
of them available and indeed.. can only decrease in value.
But then take this into account....
The average age of a movie poster collector is - overall - getting
older. That's right.. when you go to a convention, how many under
30's do you see. Very few! Why? Well it is a cultural shift in our
nation towards material value (under 30's like cars, X-box's,
Bigscreen tvs, DVD players, $200 sneakers, Louis Vuitton purses..)
and investment. Movie posters, overall.. are a very poor investment
for the average person.
Now why would Bruce want to sell?
A fine wine that is well crafted is almost never ready for drinking
when it comes out of the barrel. It takes it time - in the bottle -
maturing into a fine treat. If you drink a bottle of 1996 Lafitte in
1999, and then in 2002 and then again in 2010.. it has an entirely
different flavor. A different character, just like people who change
over the years in subtle ways, so does the wine. Then.. also just
like people ... it reaches it zenith and then slowly deteriorates
until a time when the wine literally becomes "undrinkable". It is
past it's maturity
I think he sees that we (poster buyers- sellers) might be on the
downside of maturity and that from this point on it might only become
more difficult to sell 10's of 1000's of poster titles that at one
time may have been the bread & butter of business.
There are 1000's of titles that sell for far less today than they did
20 years ago and many more that regardless of value don't sell at all.
How many Laurel & hardy collectors are out there today? Has Clark
Gable become passe because the young don't know who he is and the old
in most cases already have what they want. many 30's-50's titles are
unknown by todays collectors and silent era material with rare
exception has totally bottomed out.
I find it hard to believe that a guy like Bruce, a savvy super
seller, doesn't see this and more specifically, doesnt see the
writing on the wall. The writing that our hobby is compressing into a
smaller hobby (a hobby is something you participate in as a life
enduring form of personal entertainment) (yes, it is a hobby Henry)
and that once you get past Bruce, Heritage and then the dealers.... a
diminishing entertainment choice that is not being taken up by our young.
Personally, I would love to see Bruce have success in selling out..
as that could mean there is hope for me to do the same sometime not
far down the road. But I suspect, that Bruce will not "sell himself"
for 2mil, because as Bob from Moviegoods, Dan Strebin, Ray Ruggiero &
many other dealers with whom I have had this very conversation
with... we don't believe there is anyone out there to do this.
Someone who has the finances and the wherewithal to spend that 2mil
Rich===========================
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