First, to correct some misinformation, as of 2006, nearly 70% of American households earned greater than 25K, and around 45% earned greater than 50k. 16% were at a 100k or higher. There are some nice charts on US income distribution at wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States
Currently, there is much talk of an economic slowdown, but the idea needs to be put in relative terms: 1/3 of top economists recently surveyed predicted a recession next year, and few seem to expect an extended downturn - this following 5 years of economic expansion, during which the US expanded by the equivalent of the entire economy of China every year or two. A full discussion of the US economy would obviously be the subject of multiple posts and much speculation, most of the latter turning out wrong, but, since I don't finance my business with credit, the main effect for me as a dealer appears to be that foreign customers react positively to the better deals they're getting, with my foreign business compensating for whatever slowdown in domestic business (I can only guess). How long this situation is likely to last, and how low the dollar is likely to go is the subject of much discussion. Most people seem to think that dollar can still go lower, and there has even been some talk of a "rout of the dollar," but, as so often happens in markets, talk like that tends to accompany a market bottom or top. The Europeans don't like the dollar this weak for reasons that should be obvious - it puts their exports at a disadvantage. For US consumers, a low dollar sooner or later means higher prices, beginning with prices of imported goods, but with the effects eventually working their way throughout the economy. My personal guess is that the dollar will eventually stabilize around current levels or higher, since the previous, epochal highs in large part reflected a relative lack of confidence in the global economy, but the US economy remains the world's largest and strongest. In the meantime, prices for posters and other collectibles and luxuries will probably begin to rise (reflecting exchange rates and other inflationary pressures), depending, as always, on what final demand will allow. I don't expect that the Democrats running the table next year would be very good for the trade, but I also don't expect that to happen. If anyone has anything enlightening (and accurate!) to add on the situation - in particular as it pertains to the trade - I'd be interested. CK MacLeod Collectibles at ckmac.com Kymar's on eBay -----Original Message----- From: MoPo List [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Behalf Of Richard Halegua Comic Art Sent: Wednesday, November 21, 2007 01:07 PM To: [email protected] Subject: Re: [MOPO] Economy affecting the dealers? Hey folks I think I needed to make a further response to the query by Glenn Taranto when I was saying that the writers/stagehands strike was affecting sales I was being totally humorous the reality is that evenj if I have any customers in those fields, I don't know it I'm kind of surprised that afew folks actually thought I was serious I will say that part of the rest of that post was serious though Heritage's general customer base for signature auctions will be made of more affluent buyers than other sellers. The simple fact is that a guy who buys a $10,000 or $334,000 poster is generally un-affected by economics, however the buyers in the $10 to $500 range are seriously affected by economics and in a slow economy make fewer purchases and at lower price levels Someone making $1,000,000 a year can afford whatever he wants someone making $30,000 a year is another story. Every $500 extra cost for food, fuel etc this buyer has definitely takes away from his/her collecting tastes and can be the difference between participation and non-participation in their hobbying Right now we do indeed have economic issues in the USA that are deleterious to the collecting habits of those under the $50,000 income mark (depending on geographic location. a collector in Iowa has a different threshold than a collector making the same money in New York). For those who do not know, 90% of the USA population makes less than $50K and 50% makes less than $25K. A fuel surge for instance that costs an extra $500 a year can seem like an insurmountable obstacle to those at the lower end of income while it doesn't even register as a blip to someone making $100,000 and isn't even a mosquito bite to those making more than that. Heritage's signature auctions are not fodder for those at the lower end and therefore only represent a specific portion of the market when you get to the lower end of the market, you are more likely to see the effects of economic ham-stringing most especially during times like this when the US dollar is at an all time historic low. Even the Australian dollar shows how good it is for non-US buyers. (the Australian dollar has traditionally traded at a 2 for 1 against the US dollar. Now it is almost even with the dollar). One Aussie buyer whose name I won't mention (hey it's Ari) constantly wins a dozen or more items each week in my auctions for 99 cents and even that dirt cheap item is costing him half of what it would have in 2005. He's winning these items at 49 cents !!!! That nameless buyer (Ari) is making a killing!! Rich==================== At 10:34 PM 11/19/2007, Ron Moore wrote: >Hi Glenn and Rich! > >I find things to be a bit different. While I do have a >number of clients in the entertainment industry, I >believe the vast majority of collectors are not in the >biz but are just fans of movies. So although Rich's >business may have been affected by the strike, mine >certainly hasn't. > >Also, as far as Heritage goes, I think Rich may be >exaggerating slightly about who their clientele are. >While everyone focuses on the handfull of posters that >sold for substantial amounts of money- which makes it >easy to say that they cater to the wealthy- you have >to remember that there were over 1300 lots in the sale >with something for everyone. All various genres and >price ranges were represented. I know a number of >people that won items and they are regular folks with >regular jobs. They would not be considered >super-wealthy and some of the items that were sold >were true bargains. > >I don't think the economy has truly affected our hobby >yet. And just to go one step further, I've also >noticed over the years that when we have had some >recessions (like back in 1986 or so), people still >wanted their "toys". They may have been late on their >rent, but they had to have their posters. Maybe the >pleasure their collectibles brought took their minds >off of their troubles for a short while. > >Ron Moore >Cinema Icons > > >--- Glenn Taranto <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > Richard - > > > > I have often wondered how much of the hobby was tied > > to entertainment professionals as opposed to rich > > investors or civilians who may want a poster or two > > for fun. > > > > I think you've provided me with the answer. > > > > Glenn > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: Richard Halegua Comic Art > > To: Glenn Taranto ; [email protected] > > Sent: Monday, November 19, 2007 6:03 PM > > Subject: Re: [MOPO] Economy affecting the dealers? > > > > > > Glenn > > > > when the Hollywood writer's strike & then the > > Broadway stagehands > > strike began.. all business for us dried up like a > > grape in the sun > > > > I hope they get back to work soon so we can all > > eat > > > > of course ona serious side.. > > what Heritage did is to a wealthy market and does > > not reflect anything > > > > the rest of the market is where you see truth and > > if 90% of the > > people aren't making enough money.. well > > collectibles are certainly > > at the bottom of the shopping list > > > > Rich======== > > > > > > At 05:35 PM 11/19/2007, Glenn Taranto wrote: > > >I've been hearing that the economy is starting to > > affect eBay. The > > >Heritage auction seems to have seen some above > > average prices. Are > > >people just sick of eBay or have any of the > > dealers on the list also > > >seen signs of slowing? > > > > > >Glenn T. > > >Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at > > www.filmfan.com > > > > > >___________________________________________________________________ > > >How to UNSUBSCRIBE from the MoPo Mailing List > > >Send a message addressed to: > > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > >In the BODY of your message type: SIGNOFF MOPO-L > > >The author of this message is solely responsible > > for its content. > > > > Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at > > www.filmfan.com > > > > >___________________________________________________________________ > > How to UNSUBSCRIBE from the MoPo > > Mailing List > > > > Send a message addressed to: > > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > In the BODY of your message type: > > SIGNOFF MOPO-L > > > > The author of this message is solely responsible > > for its content. > > > > > > > > >___________________________________________________________________________ _________ >Be a better pen pal. >Text or chat with friends inside Yahoo! Mail. See >how. http://overview.mail.yahoo.com/ > > Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com > ___________________________________________________________________ > How to UNSUBSCRIBE from the MoPo Mailing List > > Send a message addressed to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > In the BODY of your message type: SIGNOFF MOPO-L > > The author of this message is solely responsible for its content. Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com ___________________________________________________________________ How to UNSUBSCRIBE from the MoPo Mailing List Send a message addressed to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] In the BODY of your message type: SIGNOFF MOPO-L The author of this message is solely responsible for its content. Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com ___________________________________________________________________ How to UNSUBSCRIBE from the MoPo Mailing List Send a message addressed to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] In the BODY of your message type: SIGNOFF MOPO-L The author of this message is solely responsible for its content.
