[Craig to DM] In a dynamic world, the weather could change everywhere, but the overall-temperature could remain the same.
[Arlo] I don't think this is right. Certainly the larger and larger you move up the context, the longer and longer aggregate averages seem to hold. For example, in your example the average temperature of the planet has longer stability than the average temperature of a continent, which in turn has longer stability than the average temperature of a state. Moving in the other direction, too, we could see that the average temperature of the solar system has greater stability than the average temperature of the planet. But even on these larger contextual levels, there has to be Dynamic changes occurring. Because the overall temperature of the earth is more stable than the overall temperature of America, or Montana, does not mean the overall temperature of the earth is not also itself in flux. We live presently in between two cycles of glaciation (a time I see referred to as "glacial regress") near the end of a larger cycle we call an "ice age". Geological records would tell us that before this present Ice Age ends, the Earth will see at least one more cycle of "glacial progress", before the Earth returns to its "normal" state, a state as experienced by the dinosaurs for millions of years. This is undeniable geology. Whether the glacial progress will occur in 1,000 years, or in 10,000 years no one can really say. Some speculate that the onset of glacial progress occurs rapidly following some major event, like the collapse of the ocean's "conveyor belts" due to desalination from polar melting. Other speculate the glaciers will creep down across the continent slowly. One side may be overly paranoid, the other may be overly blind. But one thing is certain. The "warming" of the earth is a precursor to another cycle of glaciation. Rest assured, however, that in maybe fifty thousand years or so the earth will end its present Ice Age, and return to the nice, hot, jungle-like normality the dinos enjoyed. But whether its our children or our great-great-great-great grandchildren that will have to remaster the art of Wooly Mammoth cuisine, well, we'll just have to wait and see. In the meantime, I am much more concerned with how our pollution effects our present world, the quality of my life and the quality of the lives of others, then worrying about shaving a decade or so off the inevitable coming of ice. The horrific toxic dumping of entities like Union Carbide, the reduction of fish populations and the dramatic increase in mercury in our ocean's harvest, the fact that bottled water is now the norm, the replacing of mountain valleys and hiking trails with landfills, the smog and foul air that is becoming increasingly common and not just in large urban areas. We have made much progress since the early part of the century, when the Chicago river ran afoul with the stench of tons of decaying carcasses and animal blood, when the smokestacks of our cities left a black soot covering the lungs of all who lived nearby, when our forests were routinely decimated and clear-cut. But while we have made much progress, we have also fallen prey to believing that invisibility is a solution. We dump tons of trash into our oceans rather than discuss ways to actually decrease the amount of trash we produce. We dump our toxins across the borders of second and third world nations. We think that the exhaust from our 747s is less a problem than the black plumes of our early trains, simply because we don't see it. Okay, and on that note you see what happens when you go a week without coffee and then lose your will and get a cup. :-) Moq_Discuss mailing list Listinfo, Unsubscribing etc. http://lists.moqtalk.org/listinfo.cgi/moq_discuss-moqtalk.org Archives: http://lists.moqtalk.org/pipermail/moq_discuss-moqtalk.org/ http://moq.org.uk/pipermail/moq_discuss_archive/
