Dear John Shale gas is just a fart in the storm compared to the oil.
Still there is some spare capacity in the world that can compensate for smaller differences in the oil production. Like newly at the Libyan civil war where some 1.8 mb/d production was cut from the international market. Saudi-Arabian spare capacity could compensate for that temporary loss. Chinese and Indian growth in oil demand is harder to trace and supply. When the spare capacity is at end, rough market forces will take over and the price of oil and energy will increase wildly. The price of oil is set at the margin so the last bidder is making the market. Some say this will happen in the end of this year because the global spare capacity is already under 2 million barrels per day compared to the total of nearly 90 million. 2% miscalculated demand or supply is enough to trigger the price explosion. I think it will happen in about 5 years from now. Here is why I think price will explode: The value of the oil and other fossil energy is compared to other values like ordinary hard payed work. With a small fraction of a gallon you can move a truck one mile. You can calculate that cost by yourself. say 25ยข. Now imagine that if you didn't have access to diesel or gas in any kind but you still have to move the truck anyway for some reason. Without oil or any other thing to fuel the engine, then the alternative is to move it by handcraft. If you should hire people to move the truck by hand, using some kind of levering system, then you got to calculate how much energy these people can display by their muscles only. I remember some author wrote that he was working with some chinese people to move a railwagon by hand in the 1930's, Kerouac, Seeger or Hemingway? (I'd like to read that again.) To hire people to do the same work as you can get performed out from burning oil, then the same work done by human labor will cost you a fortune. Hundreds of bucks for moving the truck one mile. The cost will be between 2 to 3 HUNDRED times the price of oil today. (110 US$ per barrel) There is NO REAL UPPER LIMIT for the price of oil when you compare it to the value of the work it performs. How should the Navy move their gunships without the oil? Plowing millions of acres by hand or by horses instead of by tractors ... oooh. Speak about the golden corn fields. As soon as the price of oil energy start to explode then the big problems will come for the motorcyclists. I don't remember if RMP mentioned something about filling the tank to make it run. That is why I keep my horse. This economic Value difference is really Dynamic Quality isn't it? Oh, its so undefined... not this and not that, ever changing and all.. Jan-Anders 20 sep 2011 kl. 19.17 John Carl wrote: > Jan-Anders Andersson, > > and Dan.... > > and faithful reader... > > Today it is a celebration here in Williston, North Dakota. The 60th Energy > Celebration here in the MonDak region, sponsored by Halliburton and friends. > I'm not attending at the moment, as its raining on their parada (yay!) and > I'm jealous of my limited time in town and would rather use the wifi in > front of the Raymond Family Community Center and chat with old friends, than > gaze upon the "Miss Williston Basin Energy Queen Pageant" and roughnecker > olympics, but the pull of energy is undeniable. I mean, there I was, > sitting at home in a comfortable place in Northern California foothills, > figuratively and literally, a Sweetland, and here I am in North Dakota, in > the rain, avoiding the parade. > > And damn glad to be here, all in all. I got in 53 hrs last week, I've had > three separate offers of employment, and I'm just about to start a big > framing project with a new boss for twice the bucks plus an oppotunity for > housing for my family next year. Also, I'm supposed to drive backhoe next > week and I just LOVE digging nice straight ditches with a backhoe. So much > fun to be had on this planet! Its almost easy to forget the cost of all > those carbons we burn in our play, and around here, nobody every shuts off > their diesels, be it pick-up or semi, be it winter or summer. As long as > they're up, their engines are running, warming up and offering life and > energy against the cold. > > I haven't experienced the cold yet. I'm figuring I'll probably skip that > part. I mean, I DO have a home and family in California. What do I look > like, stupid? When the harvest season is over, one either hibernates or > migrates. Smart animals that can, migrate > > Using fossil fuels to do so. > > Right now, they are running ads on the radio. Very professional sounding > ads they are too, about the great efficacy of extracting oil from shale by a > process called "fracking" I could explain it to you in detali, or you could > look it up, but it definitely works or there wouldn't be this huge boom > going on. The unemployment rate in Williston is 1%, because there are > fields and fields of "mancamps" full of workers extracting oil from shale. > Something they once said was cost-prohibitive. Well, I guess it depends, > like all things, upon your economic balances. at $100 a barrel, it pencils > in. Big-time. Halliburton trucks everywhere - Halliburton developed the > technology of fracking and thus they are the kingpins of the whole > operation. > > I attend a little SDA church in Williston. Not so much because I'm all that > devout about church attendance, but when you're living away from home, it's > kinda nice to have a sort of family away from home and church gives you > that. At least, the SDA church does. They're kind of a tight-knit and > clannish bunch in many ways. Anyways, last week I drove 50 into church > from the jobsite, about 12 miles south of Watford City, where we've been > pouring the foundation and when I got there I found out from a sign on the > door that the church was meeting that day at the Theodore Roosevelt National > Park, located about 12 miles south of Watford City. > > I was a bit chagrinned, at all the driving, but also amused. I Did some > shopping, a little internet, and then dashed back, whence I'd come. The > farmhouse that our crew was remodeling, was just over the rim from the park. > > The Bad Lands. Hah. What a misnomer. I wrote a bunch about these > "bad"lands, because I compared them with the "GRand" Canyon and found them > about 10 times more wonderful, awe-inspiring and gorgeous. The Grand > Canyon is a sort of TV spectacle for the eyes. A vast view that makes a big > pretentious presentation but after a minute or so, you've seen it and it's > time to get back behind your windshield and on to the next view. The > Badlands tho, illuminate and invite and inspire like nothing I've ever seen. > Their layers are rounded and smoother. If you fall into the Grand Canyon, > you plummet and die. If you fall into the Badlands, you roll and laugh. > Especially this year, with all the rains, they teem with trees and life, > bursting through the seams. > > "The Badlands, bursting at the seems." Would make a good motto. All they > need is a little marketing, but something about North Dakotans makes me > think that Marketing is not their deal. Around here, you hear mostly > plainspeak, doncha know. There is that constant query (doncha know) in > everything. Because northern climes tend to accentuate survival skills such > as seeking consensus. You can't afford to argue ephemeral cosmologies when > there's a blizzard coming. Even the way they say "North Dakota" comes out > "Nordic-ota" which tells you all you need to know about the character and > genesis of this people. More blondes than you'll ever see in California. > > Anyway, back to the badlands and the church service I missed. What I did > end up doing is talking to an old indian "medicine man" I guess one term > would be, for about 4 hours at a picnic table. One thing I've learned is > that the indians you meet at Adventist church tend to be awfully interesting > people and by far the most interesting people in the room. We talked about > Napolean, the battle of Marathon and Desert Storm and flies and bugs. He > showed me a little fly, that if you leave it alone, its vibrations chase off > all other flies. What useful information you get from indians! He'd been > there at Desert Storm and had some rather interesting stories to share about > the French tanks spearheading that little scheme and all. Stuff I won't get > into now, because the subject at hand is, and has been ever since THAT > adventure, the oil in the ground, and the power that accrues to those that > tap it. > > However, if you ever get tired of living in such a world, there are others. > There are lands of limitless possibility, just outside your own back door. > Lands of be-ribboned beauty whose magnificence only accentuates with the > colors of the setting sun. > > Well, maybe not YOUR outside door, but mine for sure. Moq_Discuss mailing list Listinfo, Unsubscribing etc. http://lists.moqtalk.org/listinfo.cgi/moq_discuss-moqtalk.org Archives: http://lists.moqtalk.org/pipermail/moq_discuss-moqtalk.org/ http://moq.org/md/archives.html
