Here's how I see the SSB-RT match-up.
For RT:
RT's got the numbers. A 7 point victory in a crowded field is stunning.
The most important fact however, is that the base of his support are in
those wards that historically have the greatest voter turn out. This
includes the 10th, 11th, 13th, and 7th. SSB's biggest support is coming
from those wards that have historically experienced low voter turnout. This
includes 3, 5, 6, and 8. This was true on Tuesday, I'm guessing it will be
true in November. In addition, the 2nd and 6th will have very competitive
races with a green party candidate. Many Greens support RT and he could
experience better than anticipated support in these wards as well. Add it
up and the numbers point to RT.
For SSB:
The mayor is undoubtedly going to outspend RT and this could have an impact.
Furthermore, except for the RT zealots, many believe RT is a "lightweight"
and SSB could probably could make a compelling arguement that in these
uncertain times we don't want someone who is going to have to learn on the
job. Given the fact that there will be a minimum of 6 new council members,
a strong case can be made for a mayor with experience at City Hall. Ostrow
and Lane's endorsement of RT will probably blunt this line of attack, but
some of it will most likely stick. Also RT has to be careful not to
underestimate the Mayor and her supporters. The mayor's campaign aimed both
barrels at Lisa McDonald and look what happened to her. Could RT be next?
Bottom Line: Based on numbers, this is RT's to lose, but it's not
impossible.
Stay tuned.
Dean E. Carlson
Ward 10, East Harriet
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