Excellent post Bill. Your reference to housing affordability as interest rates rise is an especially important point I think. However, while the ability to pay the monthly mortgage (due to higher rates) is an important factor, the plethora of variable interest debt many consumers are saddled with will greatly compound the housing affordability problem as rates rise-- many car loans, credit card debt, equity lines of credit, etc. are based on variable rate contracts. If and when rates rise, consumers will be hit on all these fronts-- owners and renters alike. And the interest rate issue goes way beyond what Greenspan and the Federal Reserve decide to do-- foreign investors have a potentially more significant role as buyers/sellers of US debt globally. If foreigners decide to reduce levels of US debt in their portfolios (i.e. inflation fears), our domestic rates will rise regardless of what the Fed wants to see happen. Thus, while today's low interest rates are tempting... if it's a variable rate loan, consumers beware. In general, over extended consumers could wreak havoc in some housing markets if inflation takes off... and today's devalued dollar is greasing the skids internationally. Something to keep in mind when discussing affordable housing, jobs and economic development in Minneapolis.
Michael Hohmann Linden Hills www.mahohmannbizplans.com > -----Original Message----- > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > Behalf Of Bill Cullen > Sent: Monday, February 16, 2004 5:31 AM > To: Mpls Forum > Subject: [Mpls] Why Would Anyone Settle In Minneapolis? > snip > > I am a Realtor / Real Estate investor. > > Recently, the Realtor's association reported that the median > price of a home > in the metro area climbed 8% in 2003. Below are the changes in median > values for Minneapolis. I added the difference and percentage > calculations. > > District Name 2002 Median 2003 Median Difference Percent change > Calhoun/Isles $292,000 $287,900 $(4,100) - 1.4% > Camden $130,000 $144,900 $14,900 10.3% > Central $233,000 $219,000 $(14,000) - 6.4% > Longfellow $169,900 $180,000 $10,100 5.6% > Nokomis $179,650 $195,000 $15,350 7.9% > North $121,950 $139,900 $17,950 12.8% > Northeast $162,000 $179,950 $17,950 10.0% > Phillips $129,950 $144,000 $14,050 9.8% > Powderhorn $157,000 $166,500 $9,500 5.7% > Southwest $237,000 $257,500 $20,500 8.0% > University $179,000 $210,500 $31,500 15.0% > snip > > I think this data does not allow us to declare that prices have > fallen. In > fact, the national Realtors Association (and the Minnesota association) is > reporting 2003 as a record year in terms of listings, sales, dollar volume > and median sales prices. All data I have is that real estate is doing > great. > > This is precisely what the stock market was saying in 2000. The more > interesting question is -- are things changing? There is no data I can > think of that conclusively shows the market has changed. However, I have > seen reports of the following: > > 1) Comparing December '03 with December '02, the inventory of > homes for sale > in the metro area is up 22.22% and the number of pending sales is down > 7.98%. This signals the market moving towards a buyers market. > > 2) The median sales price for the metro area has dropped over the past 6 > months. It was approximately $210,000 last fall, and is now $199,900. The > Realtors association claims this is normal for the slower home buying > season. Time will tell. > > 3) Greenspan is threatening higher interest rates. This is bound to have > the greatest effect on the value of real estate. To put the interest rate > effect into perspective, take a look what someone that makes the Hennepin > county median income can afford at different interest rates: > > median income 5.5% interest 7.5% interest > $75,300 $261,305 $212,190 > > In this case, the family lost approximately 20% of their purchasing power > because the interest rate climbed back to a more normal level. This will > have a huge impact on housing. > > 4) As interest rates tick up and rental housing continue to lower their > rents, I expect people to return to renting and wait out the > owner occupied > housing. > snip > But, Dyna really asked why settle in MPLS? > snip > The only reason I can see is the culture of Mpls. Regards, Bill Cullen Whittier landlord > snip REMINDERS: 1. Think a member has violated the rules? Email the list manager at [EMAIL PROTECTED] before continuing it on the list. 2. Don't feed the troll! Ignore obvious flame-bait. For state and national discussions see: http://e-democracy.org/discuss.html For external forums, see: http://e-democracy.org/mninteract ________________________________ Minneapolis Issues Forum - A City-focused Civic Discussion - Mn E-Democracy Post messages to: mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Subscribe, Un-subscribe, etc. at: http://e-democracy.org/mpls
