Here's the lede from my March, 2001 Strib piece that probably tells you
all you need to know about the reliability of between-census estimates:

"Minneapolis and St. Paul got their best population news in 
decades Wednesday when census officials revealed that both gained 
handily in the 1990s.   Census takers found 60,000 people who were
overlooked in 1999 estimates that indicated that both cities were losing
population."

Of course, the decennial census has its flaws too, especially when the
traditional undercounting of racial minorities, and Latinos in
particular, is not offset with inputed data.  A good rule of thumb for
the between-census estimates is that the lower the political
subdivision, the more coarse the estimate.  State-level estimates are
far better than municipal estimates.

Steve Brandt
Star Tribune
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