Don't forget the home gateway aspect -- it's a huge gaping hole in the IPv6 deployment strategy for ISPs. And don't talk to me about Apple's Airport Extreme. ISPs want (once the volume of IETF IPv6-related drafts has settled down) for every router at Wal-mart to include IPv6 support. If they start right now and presume that home gateways/routers are replaced every 3 to 5 years, it will be several years before they've covered even 50% of the homes.
Frank -----Original Message----- From: Leo Bicknell [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: Monday, April 19, 2010 9:31 AM To: [email protected] Subject: Re: Rate of growth on IPv6 not fast enough? In a message written on Sun, Apr 18, 2010 at 10:22:25PM -0700, joel jaeggli wrote: > Just because the curve doesn't look steep enough now doesn't mean it > won't in two years. Human behavior is hard to model and panic hasn't set > in yet. There is also an aspect of this transition I don't think we've seen before (in networking). A large percentage of end users are on technologies (cable modem, dsl, even dial up) who's configuration is entirely driven out of a provisioning database. Once the backbone is rolled out, the nameservers, dhcp, and configuration servers dual-stacked many ISP's could enable IPv6 for all of their customers overnight with only a few keystrokes. Now they won't literally do it that way to save their support folks, but if the need arises they will be able to push the button quite quickly. I suspect the middle part of this S curve is going to be much, much steeper than anyone is predicting right now. -- Leo Bicknell - [email protected] - CCIE 3440 PGP keys at http://www.ufp.org/~bicknell/
