FWIW, I have a 250 subscribers sitting on a 100M fiber into Torix. I have had
no complains about speed in 4 1/2 years. I have been planning to bump them to
1G for the last 4 years, but there is currently no economic justification.
paul
> On Apr 2, 2019, at 3:21 PM, Louie Lee via NANOG <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> Certainly.
>
> Projecting demand is one thing. Figuring out what to buy for your backbone,
> edge (uplink & peer), and colo (for CDN caches too!), for which scale+growth
> is quite another.
>
> And yeah, Jim, overall, things have stayed the same. There are just the
> nuances added with caches, gaming, OTT streaming, some IoT (like always-on
> home security cams) plus better tools now for network management and network
> analysis.
>
> Louie
> Google Fiber.
>
>
>
> On Tue, Apr 2, 2019 at 12:00 PM Jared Mauch <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>
> > On Apr 2, 2019, at 2:35 PM, jim deleskie <[email protected]> wrote:
> >
> > +1 on this. its been more than 10 years since I've been responsible for a
> > broadband network but have friends that still play in that world and do
> > some very good work on making sure their models are very well managed, with
> > more math than I ever bothered with, That being said, If had used the
> > methods I'd had used back in the 90's they would have fully predicted per
> > sub growth including all the FB/YoutubeNetflix traffic we have today. The
> > "rapid" growth we say in the 90's and the 2000' and even this decade are
> > all magically the same curve, we'd just further up the incline, the
> > question is will it continue another 10+ years, where the growth rate is
> > nearing straight up :)
>
>
> I think sometimes folks have the challenge with how to deal with aggregate
> scale and growth vs what happens in a pure linear model with subscribers.
>
> The first 75 users look a lot different than the next 900. You get different
> population scale and average usage.
>
> I could roughly estimate some high numbers for population of earth internet
> usage at peak for maximum, but in most cases if you have a 1G connection you
> can support 500-800 subscribers these days. Ideally you can get a 10G link
> for a reasonable price. Your scale looks different as well as you can work
> with “the content guys” once you get far enough.
>
> Thursdays are still the peak because date night is still generally Friday.
>
> - Jared
