And now:Ish <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes: complete report converted to HTML and indexed at: http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001SFC excerpt: Status FERC released its first overall assessment of the Y2K status and preparedness of the gas and oil industry in September 1998, and has issued two updates since that timeŠ in January 1999 and in May 1999. API and AGA, in coordination with the Gas Research Institute and the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America, collected and analyzed surveys of its members to assess the industry's compliance with Y2K requirements. These surveys form the basis for the FERC assessment. Assessment results are shown in Figure 5 for embedded systems. The original survey was sent to more than 8,000 gas and oil companies. Only 638, or fewer than 10%, responded. Notwithstanding this low response rate, the fact that most of the 66 big companies responded means that about 66% of total oil and gas consumption was represented in the survey. In later surveys, FERC reported the percentage of consumption rather than the actual number of companies responding to the surveys. The percentage grew to 88% of consumption in the February survey, and to 93% of consumption in the survey released in June 1999. While 93% participation is excellent, it could still mean that more than 1,000 small companies did not participate. This raises concerns for the customers served by these small companies. Each survey asked companies to indicate the stage their companies were "in," not the stage they had completed. This makes it difficult to determine the true status of the industry. Making matters worse, one of the stages companies could indicate on the survey instrument was "completed or Y2K Ready." but FERC did not report survey results for this category. When Senator Bennett asked members of the oil and gas working group about this omission in a June 28, 1999, meeting, they indicated that only 20% of the companies reported having their business systems completely Y2K ready. Only 16% of the companies reported that their embedded systems were completely Y2K ready. Nevertheless, the most recent survey issued in June 1999 indicates that 94% of responding companies estimate they will be ready by September 30, 1999, and all estimate they will be ready by the end of the year. This projection seems unrealistic given the low state of readiness reported to the Committee Chairman in June 1999. The Committee can only conclude either that many companies are 99% ready and will finish the last 1% of their systems in the next few months, or that many oil and gas companies will not complete Y2K remediation efforts in time. In light of the late completion dates estimated by many companies, the Committee recommends that significant resources be devoted to contingency planning. This must be stressed because, as shown in Figure 5, fewer than 40% of the companies have actually developed and tested contingency plans. The Committee remains concerned about the Y2K status of countries from which the U. S. imports oil. About 55% of the oil used in the U. S. comes from foreign sources. Yet, as depicted in Figure 6, many of these countries have a high risk of Y2K disruptions. This risk is based on recent country assessments from a variety of sources, including Global 2000, the World Bank, CapGemini, the State Department, and the Gartner Group, and considers both the Y2K readiness of the oil companies as well as the infrastructure in those countries. Indeed, of the top 10 countries from which the U. S. imports oil, three are at high risk for disruption in oil production and transportation; one is at medium risk; three are at low risk (similar to the U. S.); and the status of three are unknown.
