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You are subscriber #14779 out of 17286 total. Modification to Star Ratings -------------------------------------------------------- I have modified my star-ratings system based on some subscriber feedback to make it a bit easier to undertand and track. Whereas prior star-ratings were not necssarily tied to specific unit bet amounts, this new system explicitly ties them together. I am now rating each and every game from 1 to 6 stars. The units associated with these star ratings are as follows: Against-the-Spread (ATS) and MoneyLine (ML) Star Rating System: 1 Star = risk 55 units on ATS bet and 50 units on ML bet 2 Star = risk 110 units on ATS bet and 100 units on ML bet 3 Star = risk 165 units on ATS bet and 150 units on ML bet 4 Star = risk 220 units on ATS bet and 200 units on ML bet 5 Star = risk 275 units on ATS bet and 250 units on ML bet 6 Star = risk 330 units on ATS bet and 300 units on ML bet I have gone back and re-rated each of my picks this season based on this system so everything is consistent moving forward. From here on out, including this week, I'll report results based on this system. A Slightly Losing Week 7 -------------------------------------------------------- Week 7 Sunday was dissapointing as my biggest picks didn't cover while I was 5-5-1 in the eleven picks, on a star basis it was just 8-12-2 ATS for -260 units. The MoneyLine was 2-3 for +25 units as Miami and Arizona won outright as pretty big underdogs. Overall -235 units for the day. You can view all of my previous picks and prior newsletters/write-ups here: http://www.freeunderdog.com/2004-nfl.html Tonight's Monday Night Football Matchup -------------------------------------------------------- Tonight we try to improve upon our 3-1 Monday Night record . I like a side in tonight's game between Denver and Cincinnati quite a bit. I'm going to make it a 2-star selection. In this game we have a team on a roll visiting a team in the dumps. After such high expectations coming out of last year, the Bengals are again playing like the Bungles. Denver has been a pleasant surprise, especially on defense. Will Cincinnati step up to the challenge as a big Monday Night home underdog and keep it close? I have a Premium Pick in the game tonight. My preview is below and you can get my full write-up and pick for $5. Good luck! The Dog Denver -6 at Cincinnati Game Preview --------------------- Clinton who? The loss of Portis hasn't slowed Denver's running game at all. Denver has amassed 920 yards on the ground in six games. With Reuben Droughns in the lineup, the Ponies have rushed for over 200 yards in their last two games. The Broncos have won 4 straight and lead AFC West by a healthy margin. Cincinnati finally gets the call to host a Monday Nighter after 15 years, and they are a 6-point underdog because they have played so poorly thus far. Their defense is ranked near the bottom of the league and QB Carson Palmer hasn't yet lived up to expectations. When looking at the stats, it's hard to make an argument as to why Cincinnati can keep this game close. But, Cincinnati is obviously preparing to stop Droughns. Expect them to load 8 or 9 in the box to slow him and force Jake Plummer to beat them. Also, this is Monday Night and home dogs on Monday night fight like hell. Cincinnati knows that this game can, in some ways, turn their season around. Which Pro Bowler wil! l come out ahead in this one: Champ Bailey or the outspoken Chad Johnson? If Cincy focuses on stopping the run, can Jake Plummer win the game for Denver? Is Denver just too strong for Cincy? One of these teams qualifies for a Monday Night Football system that covers the spread 70% of the time. But, as I did last Monday Night, I am bucking this trend because I beleive that the other team should cover the spread. I have a premium pick for this game. Get my analysis including motivation, injuries, systems/trends/angles and my pick for the game for just $5. Order securely here: https://srv02.velocera-eng.com/~freeunderdog.com/subscription/subscribers/paid_newsletter_form.php ========================= NFL Football Resources ========================= Up-to-Date NFL ATS Records: http://www.freeunderdog.com/nfl-football-ats-standings.htm NFL Game-of-the-Week Preview: http://www.freeunderdog.com/nfl-football-game-of-the-week-preview.html Live NFL Football Lines: http://www.freeunderdog.com/lines-and-odds-nfl.html ====================================================================== --------------------------------------------------------- Pass this Newsletter on to a Friend! If you know someone who would like to receive my newsletter and picks, please direct them here: http://www.freeunderdog.com. --------------------------------------------------------- The information in this newsletter is based on opinion is intended for informational purposes only. No guarantees or warranties are implied. Use this information at your own risk. --------------------------------------------------------- Good luck! The Dog Manage Your Subscriptions (stop receiving, add to other newsletters, change email preferences, view account history) (bfbeeb2a25888f2f6d02676493579c65):
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