I agree, it's really unclear what "winning" or "loosing" might be here.
Both extreme scenarios (winning = turning Ukraine into a Belarus-like
client-state with little violence; loosing = restoration of the
territorial integrity of Ukraine, and collapse of Putin-regime) seem
very unlikely, but everything in between is possible, not the least the
Hill-scenario which David quotes here.
I think what can be said that whatever is going to happen is going to
take a long time and the even longer for the consequences to play out.
But whatever it is, the neoliberal post cold-war order (the period of
most of our adult lifes) is over: both in the sense that the economy and
politics are different things, and that trade fosters peaceful
co-existence. Biden, in a way, said that early in this administration,
when he spoke about the struggles of democracy vs autocracy.
One of the inadvertent consequences, at least from a German point of
view, is that this could, indeed, hasten the energy transition. The
greens were always against North Stream 2, and now it's dead. Their
argument about energy as a geopolitical issue always fell on deaf
(neoliberal) ears (see above). No longer. Even the liberals are now
calling renewables "freedom energies". Given that the problem is going
to last a long time, it might be enough time to push the energy system
over the edge (in a good way).
But the number of uncertainties are very high and the willingness of the
Europeans to involve themselves in this war (for very good reasons!)
might, or might not, increase the chances of a likely escalation.
Should there be some light at the end of the tunnel, it's an indication
how long and dark this tunnel is (and that we have been in it for a
while already).
all the best. Felix
On 02.03.22 11:17, David Garcia wrote:
"Andreas Broeckmann" wrote:
Russia's war against Ukraine was lost from day one. The people in Russia
must now decide how they want to get out of the mess their leadership
created.
Russia can never win this war. It will not be able to suppress the
resistance of the Ukrainian people who, even if Russian troops were to
occupy major parts of the territory, would continue to offer both
civilian and armed resistance to this occupation. This resistance would
not end.
Much as I would like to believe this narrative, I fear it is wishful thinking.
As Fiona Hill
said in a MUST-READ interview in Politico. Putin may have a different vision of
success
other than mere occupation.
"....he (Putin) may not have sufficient force to take the country for a
protracted period. It also may be that he doesn’t want to occupy the whole
country, that
he wants to break it up, maybe annex some parts of it, maybe leave some of it
as rump statelets
or a larger rump Ukraine somewhere, maybe around Lviv. I’m not saying that I
know exactly
So what Putin wants isn’t necessarily to occupy the whole country, but really
to divide it up.
He’s looked at Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and other places where there’s a
division of the country
between the officially sanctioned forces on the one hand, and the rebel forces
on the other.
That’s something that Putin could definitely live with — a fractured, shattered
Ukraine with
different bits being in different statuses.
Reynolds: So step by step, in ways that we haven’t always appreciated in the
West, Putin has
brought back a lot of these countries that were independent after the Soviet
collapse back under his
umbrella. The only country that has so far evaded Putin’s grip has been Ukraine.
Hill: Ukraine, correct. Because it’s bigger and because of its strategic
location. That’s what Russia wants
to ensure, or Putin wants to ensure, that Ukraine like the other countries, has
no other option than
subjugation to Russia."
Please read the full text.. It gives some idea of the extreme danger we are facing and how best to resist
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340
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