strana.ru
October 1, 2001
Russia to arm and feed Northern Alliance
Rivalry is again emerging between Kremlin and White House over influence
on
Afghan regime
By Nikolai Ulyanov
Russia continues extensive consultations with its allies and partners in
Central Asia on the prospect of the upcoming international
anti-terrorist
operation in Afghanistan. The two events most conspicuous in this
situation
are the 11th meeting of the council of the chiefs of the security and
intelligence bodies of the CIS countries and a decision of President
Vladimir
Putin to grant urgent humanitarian aid to the population of Afghanistan.
Official reports say the meeting in the Tajik capital, Dushanbe, of
counter-intelligence officers from the former Soviet republics is to
"discuss
coordination of actions of the security and intelligence services of the
CIS
states with the secret services of other countries outside the
Commonwealth
on combating international terrorism." In actual fact, the purpose of
the
meeting is to decide on the character and extent of aid to be given by
the
CIS Central Asian republics and Russia to their new allies - the U.S.
and
Britain.
As Russia has already handed over to the U.S. military intelligence data
on
the location of Taliban military bases and the units of Osama bin Laden,
without which the first phase of the anti-terrorist operation (air
strikes)
cannot be carried out, most likely matters of smaller importance to the
U.S.
and urgent for Russia are being discussed in Dushanbe. One of the
probable
issues on the agenda is preparedness of Russian border guards of the
201st
division stationed at the Tajik border with Afghanistan and Russia's
partners
in the Collective Security Treaty to repel a possible Taliban attack; or
ways
of monitoring the actions of Western security services in Russia's
responsibility zone in Central Asia after military units of the
anti-terrorist coalition are admitted to that zone; or finding the most
effective way of delivering to Afghanistan Russian arms, military
hardware
and ammunition promised by Vladimir Putin to the Northern Alliance.
Plans of
curbing possible actions of protest by a part of the Islamic population
in
the republics of the former USSR, which may erupt after a massive strike
of
the West at Afghanistan, are also to be discussed.
The fact that the meeting on such a high level, and the preceding
meetings,
are held precisely in Dushanbe evidently is to convince our allies in
Central
Asia once again that the Collective Security Treaty is a really
operating
political and military mechanism. Russia is going strictly to abide by
it and
reliably to guarantee the security of its allies. Russia is interested
in
this not less than its Central Asian partners, for it is essential for
it not
only to preserve but also to expand its political, military and economic
influence in that part of the world. It will be hard for Russia to do
this
single-handed, because in the new geopolitical situation the CIS
republics in
Central Asia may be drawn into the zone of long-term U.S. interests.
Precisely this threat is most likely reflected in the official agenda of
the
Dushanbe meeting.
Most interesting in this context is Putin's fairly unexpected
instruction to
the Russia's government to extend big humanitarian aid to the Afghan
population. This task is to be implemented by Sergei Shoigu, one of the
closest associates and friends of the Russian president, which indicates
how
important it is to the Kremlin. One recalls in this connection the
previous
tasks given by Putin to Shoigu - the formation of the pro-Kremlin Unity
bloc
and its participation in the parliamentary elections, and restoration of
the
town of Lensk destroyed by a flood. In both cases Shoigu coped with a
difficult task, which added much to the political weight of the Russian
president.
It looks like the new task given to Shoigu signals a new stage in the
Kremlin's difficult political game in Afghanistan. It is clear that
humanitarian aid will be arriving from Russia only to the Afghan
provinces
controlled by the Northern Alliance. The day before Putin publicly
announced
that arms and military equipment would be delivered to the Northern
Alliance.
This reminds one of a phrase said by George Bush in a one-hour telephone
conversation with Vladimir Putin - you want again to install a
pro-Moscow
government in Kabul.
Evidently this is true. The Kremlin has most likely decided to use the
opportunity and openly to support the Northern Alliance in the hope of
bringing to power a friendly government in Afghanistan. Americans
quickly
realized this and began their own game, persuading the aged Afghan Kind
Mohamad Zahir Shah that he or his son should head a new regime after the
Taliban movement is defeated. Some media reports have announced that the
moderate part of the Taliban wants to get rid of the most odious
leaders,
like mullah Omar, and to join a ruling coalition together with Zahir
Shah. It
looks like these reports are nothing more than a propaganda ploy, but it
clearly reflects the direction of Washington's thought.
If this interpretation of the developments is correct, the situation is
becoming most interesting. Russia and the U.S., the allies in the
anti-terrorist coalition, are beginning again, as in the cold war years,
to
rival for influence in Afghanistan and in Central Asia as a whole.
Naturally
this rivalry will not be as aggressive and tough as it was in the latter
half
of the 20th century. It will be fairly civilized and diplomatic, as
rivalry
between good neighbors. But the fact is that history repeats itself.
Serbian News Network - SNN
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http://www.antic.org/
