Tuesday, Oct. 2, 2001. Page 1
Russia Waits for NATO's Embrace
By Megan TwoheyStaff Writer
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In the buildup to the meeting between President Vladimir Putin and NATO Secretary-General George Robertson in Brussels on Wednesday, there's been speculation about whether Russia might ask to join NATO. Putin was asked about this possibility during his visit to Germany last week. "Everything depends on what is on offer," he told reporters. "There is no longer a reason for the West not to conduct such talks." Yet, despite a new climate of cooperation between Russia and the West, which surfaced in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks on the United States, it is unlikely that Russia will become a member of NATO anytime soon, experts say. Instead, this week's meeting may open up careful discussions on how Russia and NATO can reconfigure their relationship to better serve both parties' needs. "Putin won't ask for membership," said Robert Nurick, director of the Moscow Carnegie Center. "But he is likely to continue to use the new anti-terrorist movement as a way to put in place a Russian-NATO agenda that gives Russia more decision-making power." Russia doesn't need to become a member of NATO in order for it to have stronger ties to and more influence in the alliance. Russia and NATO now communicate through the Permanent Joint Council. The council, which was set up in 1997, was designed to give Russia a voice instead of a veto. But Russia has longed viewed the council as a platform through which NATO simply announces its decisions. NATO may now try to draw Russia closer by reforming the council so that Russia is actually consulted ahead of time about key NATO decisions, Nurick said Monday. Even if Russia did want to become a member of NATO, the country would have to undergo some severe internal transformations. For starters, it would have to comply with current NATO rules, which require full civilian control of the military, a policy that is not in place in Russia. "There can't be more than seven or eight lines on military spending in the preliminary budget the Duma just adopted for next year," said Alexander Savelyev, head of the military policy section at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations at the Russian Academy of Sciences. "That's certainly not enough to claim that the Duma controls military spending." Russia has given no signals that it is anxious to transform in order to be admitted to NATO. In fact, the messages coming out of Moscow are quite the opposite. They suggest that Russia isn't interested in joining NATO unless NATO changes. "Some people are saying that the new question is whether Russia should join NATO," said Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-connected political analyst. "The real question is how should NATO change so that Russia can join." To become a member, Russia would want, among other things, for NATO to decrease its military forces and weaponry, Markov said. It would also want NATO to deny membership to Latvia and Estonia. NATO members have been discussing that possibility informally for some time. If such barriers were overcome and Russia became a member of NATO, the alliance's role in the world would be transformed. With membership, Russia would receive veto power. Because Russia is sometimes at odds with NATO, as was the case with NATO's military action over Kosovo, its right to veto NATO decisions could cripple the alliance's ability to take action supported by Europe and the United States. Perhaps most significant would be the extension of NATO's land borders to China. Such an extension would force NATO to take China into consideration when debating whether to use the Article V mutual-defense clause. "I doubt NATO members would be happy to assume responsibility for the Russian-Chinese border," said Savelyev. And, of course, if Russia really wants to become a member of NATO, it will have to apply like everybody else. The Soviet Union made a request in 1953, after the death of Stalin. When Nikita Khrushchev asked to join, the United States and Britain refused. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2001/10/02/001.html |
