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San Diego Union-Tribune October 4, 2002
Will NATO Be Defeated By Demography?
By Craig Romm
Concerns over the next NATO enlargement ignore the fact that NATO is not
actually
growing. It's shrinking. Even if all eight prospective countries join
the alliance, the
European NATO allies will see their combined population shrink by nearly
17 million
people by mid-century, according to United Nations projections.
NATO is also getting older. When the alliance was formed 53 years ago,
the median
age was 31. Now it is 36 and rising. By 2050, it will be 44, and without
the United
States and Turkey, it would be 49. The inclusion of the eight new
candidate countries
will help to stabilize NATO's population size, but it will do nothing to
halt the
precipitous rise in the median age. In fact, Eastern Europe is
depopulating even faster
than Western Europe.
The rapid aging of Europe will only deepen the age and military
disparity between the
United States and its allies. The United States, aside from having the
most advanced
military, is also among the youngest countries in the alliance. In 2050
its median age
will be a lively 41.
As NATO grows older, there will be fewer young people to fill military
roles. The
shrinking of the alliance's domestic work forces is now a demographic
certainty, and
the competition from the private sector will make military recruitment
harder then ever
before. Countries with manpower shortages may prove unwilling to commit
to military
confrontations, instead relying on ad hoc diplomacy and outright
appeasement.
There also will be no money in European budgets for militaries. The
social welfare
systems of the NATO countries are heavily mortgaged to cover pension and
health
expenditures for their rapidly aging populations. The elderly will
nearly double as a
share of Europe's population to 30 percent in 2050. Generous welfare
state
commitments will divert revenue from maintaining military preparedness
and many of
our European allies are likely to allow their armed forces to continue
aging into
obsolescence.
Europe's lackluster support of U.S. military action in Kosovo and
Afghanistan could
be a harbinger of things to come. Under current defense spending and
political trends,
European allies will lack the ability, and the motivation, to influence
international
security. Little wonder that our allies counsel hesitation toward Iraq.
NATO is getting
too old to fight.
Meanwhile, there is a yawning generation gap with the Third World. A
report released
by the Central Intelligence Agency points out that "youth bulges" often
accompany
political instability, ethnic wars, revolutions and anti-regime
activities. Among the 25
youngest countries in the world, 16 have hosted major conflicts over the
past 10 years.
In contrast, of the 25 oldest countries, only Croatia has faced a major
civil conflict
over the same time frame. Young men with few economic opportunities are
easily
recruited into radical causes. Algeria, Cambodia, Northern Ireland and
Iran are
examples of young populations run amok.
In much of the volatile Middle East, exploding birthrates have created
ultra-young
societies. Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Pakistan all have median ages under
19, and are
among the youngest and fastest-growing countries in the world.
Unemployment,
already a serious problem in these countries, is likely to get much
worse in coming
decades. A lack of economic prospects and fewer opportunities to
emigrate, a
byproduct of anti-terrorism, is quickly turning the region into a
pressure cooker. If it
explodes, will the developed world be too old to contend with it?
NATO members should also make every effort to cooperate with, and
influence
younger countries in order to prevent them from becoming future sources
of global
instability. By tying the younger developing countries into global
markets, they can
create opportunities that diminish the appeal of radical ideology.
The aging and depopulation of NATO is sure to have an impact on the
future of global
security. Western leaders must do all they can today to give the leaders
of tomorrow
the tools they will need to defend themselves. Barring a new baby boom
or a wave of
migration on an unprecedented scale, the demographic trends for NATO are
essentially
fixed. The issue of guns or grandparents must be addressed before
military decline
becomes irreversible.
Romm is program coordinator for the Global Aging Initiative at the
Center for Strategic
and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
Serbian News Network - SNN
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
http://www.antic.org/
