Borut Grgic: Western Balkans revisited in Kosovo
Special to Gulf News
Given the recent outbreak of violence in Kosovo, it is high time to redress
Europe's Western Balkans approach with new ideas. With Romania and Bulgaria
scheduled to enter the European Union, EU, in 2007 and Turkey's membership
bid up for review in December this year, the future of the so-called Western
Balkans region remains straddled between internal instability and the EU's
equivocal commitment.
To be precise, there are three opinions on the Western Balkans in the EU
today. One is of the EU Commission, which undeniably is working to prepare
this region for eventual membership.
The other comes from the national political preferences of member states
which would like to see the Western Balkans integrated into the EU as soon
as possible. The third agenda is being drafted by enlargement sceptics, who
are apparently suffering from a bad case of enlargement fatigue.
It is not surprising then, that the Western Balkan leaders remain uncertain
of what is in store for their countries. The people of the region are
totally disillusioned about the European perspective. Parts of this region
are dying - literally.
The youth is emigrating, the number of retired is growing by the day,
fertility is low (spare Albanians), and unemployment is through the roof -
in some places it still tops the 50 per cent mark. Productivity is generally
low, foreign investment lacking, or significantly lagging behind the rates
recorded in Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey.
There is an obvious solution. Those who are trying to help this region must
redress their approach to fit the realities on the ground. For instance,
there is no sense in pretending that we are dealing with a regional problem.
For example, Croatia and Macedonia are light years ahead of Bosnia in terms
of economic development and meeting EU standards. Their political structures
are stable and defined, especially in Zagreb.
Macedonia has made significant progress with the implementation of the Ohrid
Agreement. With the handover of General Gotovina to The Hague, Croatia is
certainly ready to begin EU accession talks.
Serbia, Kosovo and Montenegro exhibit a problem of a different kind - theirs
is a question of undefined territoriality, alongside slow reforms.
Territoriality will not be decided until, at the earliest, 2006 in the case
of Montenegro.
And a review of the Kosovo standards will take place in 2005. Negotiations
on Kosovo's final status are not yet in the picture, but maybe they should
be given the obvious rise in social frustrations that this uncertainty is
causing.
Bosnia and Kosovo exhibit still another problem - that of dependency on the
international community for their survivability. It's the Office of the High
Representative, OHR, that runs the show in the case of Bosnia, and United
Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo, UNMIK, in the case of
Kosovo. The transfer of power to the local leaderships is crucial.
Local authorities don't have enough executive and enforcement capabilities.
Postponing a transfer from the international community onto the local
shoulders will only increase the dependency factor.
Albania is a different case altogether. It is not nearly as progressive as
Croatia, or even Macedonia, in terms of institutional and economic reforms.
In many respects, the Albanian government's authority is limited to the
central part of the country. Organised crime is widespread and presents a
serious problem.
The economy of Albania is surviving on remittances. With all meaningful
production at a standstill, the huge trade deficit is draining the national
budget. Four separate agendas are needed to solve the instability in the
Western Balkans and integrate this region into the EU. One agenda should aim
at Croatia and Macedonia, with an emphasis on accession.
A separate one is needed for Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo with an emphasis
on final territorial settlement, followed by a time-line for EU accession. A
third one is needed for Bosnia and Kosovo with an emphasis on building legal
and governing self-sustainability, and a fourth for Albania with an emphasis
on total economic and institutional reconstruction.
The point is not to think of this region as a block, but as individual
projects, aimed at systematically shrinking the Western Balkan circle of
instability.
This approach has two distinct advantages. It eliminates the burden of
another big-bang enlargement, as it looks to integrate the Western Balkans
region in parts. At the same time it offers a clear EU perspective to the
region by problem-tailoring the EU approach.
Excluding this region from EU membership is not an option, while the sheer
idea of doing so sounds particularly sophomoric if we consider that with the
entry of Romania and Bulgaria the Western Balkans region will become a
sinking ship, literally, inside the EU.
Borut Grgic is a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council in
Washington D.C. and foreign policy advisor in Ljubljana.
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