Dangerous rumblings in Bosnia
The passage of hard-hitting measures by the international community in Bosnia and Herzegovina sparks mass protests by Bosnian Serbs, in a crisis that is threatening to escalate dangerously. By Anes Alic in Sarajevo for ISN Security Watch (02/11/07) As many as 10,000 Bosnian Serbs gathered on 29 October across Bosnia's Republika Srpska entity to protest a recent decision by the international community that in some parts of the country is seen as much-needed reform, but here is seen as another attempt to strengthen state institutions at the expense of Bosnian Serb autonomy. The international community's High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Slovak diplomat Miroslav Lajcak, revealed on 19 October the first set of measures aimed at countering attempts to paralyze the running of state institutions, including the government. Lajcak's measures will make it difficult for representatives of any of Bosnia's three ethnic groups - Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims), Serbs and Croats - to block the proceedings of the central government by using their veto power every time they feel their ethnic identities are in jeopardy. Local officials and lawmakers frequently resort to abstaining from voting to disable the passage of certain laws and regulations deemed to benefit one ethnic group over another. With the new measures, these "ethnic vetoes" will be canceled and boycotts rendered ineffective. The new regulations reduce by half the number of members of the parliament needed for a law to be passed in an attempt to render Bosnia and Herzegovina a more functional state. Lajcak has given the state parliament until 1 December to adopt the measures, otherwise he will use his sweeping Bonn powers to impose them unilaterally. The move comes after the failure of local officials to agree on police and constitutional reforms - both EU requirements for Bosnia to progress toward membership in the bloc. Currently, each ethnic-based entity has its own police force, and Bosnian Serbs insist on retaining the status quo, while the international community, along with Bosnian Croats and Bosniaks, are pushing for integration and state control. A press statement from the Office of the High <http://www.ohr.int> Representative (OHR) said that the latest reforms were aimed at speeding up the decision-making process in the Bosnian government and parliament and invigorating the beleaguered reform effort. "Reactions to my decisions are out of proportion and have caused an artificial crisis that could stop any progress," Lajcak told a news conference in Sarajevo, saying that he was ready for dialogue but would not bow to blackmail. Days after Lajcak announced his decision, an emergency session of the Assembly of Republika Srpska adopted a declaration demanding that Lajcak reconsider his measures and refine them to be more acceptable to Bosnian Serbs. Bosnian Serbs hold that the new measures violate their ethnic rights as they enable the Federation entity - dominated by Bosniaks and Bosnian Croats - to out-vote them. Politicians in the Federation entity have backed Lajcak's proposal. Republika Srpska Prime Minister Milorad Dodik - at one time the international community's choice while he was in the opposition and leader of the ruling Party of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) - announced that if Lajcak did not withdraw his decision, Serbs officials would pull out of all state institutions. That move, however, was postponed until the next entity parliament session on 5 November. Meanwhile, Dodik has called for Lajcak to resign and for the OHR to be abolished. Following the pied piper The first in line to heed Dodik's call was Bosnian Serb Nikola Spiric, Bosnia's state prime minister and a high-ranking SNSD official. On 1 November, Spiric offered his resignation and dismissed the Cabinet in what he described as an effort to calm down the crisis. "For 12 years, foreigners have run this country and this is not good," he said as he announced his resignation. However, it is clear that Spiric's resignation will only deepen the crisis, and while resigning, he made it clear that his party and ethnic divisions were placed in jeopardy by Lajcak's measures, rather than his post as the state's prime minister. After all, Spiric announced his resignation over measures that would make his job as prime minister much easier and the work of the government much more effective. As it stands, under Spiric's leadership, the Bosnian government has passed only three laws in the past 10 months - and of those, none were relevant to the key reforms required by the EU. The OHR's press office insisted that measures would not be withdrawn, crisis or no. "If the tensions continue to escalate without particular reason, that will be the choice of the Bosnian Serb authorities and they would be therefore deemed responsible for such a situation and possible consequences," read an OHR statement. The US Embassy in Sarajevo issued a similar statement. Recalling the 1990s The protesters, led and organized by the hard-line Serb nationalist association of non-governmental organizations "SPONA," also called for the return of powers earlier transferred from the entities to the state level - such as those related to military and economic reforms - the blocking of state institutions and the holding of a referendum on Republika Srpska's secession from Bosnia. Their request recalls a similar situation in the early 1990s, when Bosnian Serbs, led by soon-to-be wartime leader Radovan Karadzic, threatened the same after Bosnia announced a referendum on independence from Yugoslavia. Months later, war broke out. In a related development, the top commander of European Union peacekeepers (EUFOR) in Bosnia said that his forces were ready to intervene should conflict be renewed. German Admiral Hans-Jochen Witthauer told local media that the 2,500 international peacekeepers presently in Bosnia were ready to intervene quickly in the event of an outbreak of war. NATO likewise stressed that in the case of any flare-up in violence it could quickly deploy its military assets, mainly from Italy and Germany. Enter the Orthodox brotherhood Some of the demonstrators in Republika Srpska's largest city, Banja Luka, carried portraits of Russian President Vladimir Putin, calling on Moscow to intervene. They also called neighboring Serbia, and Belgrade was quick to offer at least moral support. Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica warned that Lajcak's decision was an open threat to the essential interests of the Serb people, linking the measures to the ongoing status talks surrounding the Serbian province of Kosovo, which is on edge as a decision on its independence draws near. "The High Representative Miroslav Lajcak is responsible for the current crisis in Bosnia-Herzegovina and it would be best if he resigns…Preserving Kosovo and Republika Srpska are now the most important goals of our state and national policy," Kostunica told a press conference. However, Western powers said that they supported Lajcak's reforms - reforms they described as necessary for Bosnia's eventual European integration. The EU vowed to stand by Lajcak and not let Bosnia sign a Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) - the first step for western Balkan nations toward EU accession - until the reforms were adopted. They also warned the Serbian government not to interfere in Bosnia's internal affairs, and particularly not to link Bosnia's current crisis to the Kosovo status talks. Earlier this year, some Bosnian Serb officials, including Prime Minister Dodik, had warned that if Kosovo were granted independence, Republika Srpska would secede from Bosnia. Despite the pleas from Banja Luka, Russia also supported Lajcak, but criticized the timing of his changes, saying he was ignoring an atmosphere of growing tensions in the Balkans, referring to the situation surrounding the Kosovo status talks. Widening the divide A day after the Republika Srpska demonstrations, a Bosnian Croat NGO Croatia Libertas, which is organizing a petition for the creation of a third, separate Bosnian Croat entity, called on all Croat politicians to pull out of state institutions. The organization has collected tens of thousands of signatures to support the idea, claiming they are discriminated against by the Bosniak majority in the Federation entity, and that an entity with a Croat majority would help restore equal constitutional rights and evade yet another crisis. _____ Anes Alic is the senior analyst for ISN Security Watch in Southeastern Europe. He is also the executive director of ISA <http://www.isaintel.com> Consulting, a nonprofit, independent consultancy that specializes in providing analysis of developing issues in international relations to NGOs. He is based in Sarajevo. http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?ID=18310
