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Stratfor Geopolitical Diary: Kosovo's Choice November 19, 2007 03 00 GMT Serbia's secessionist province of Kosovo held elections Saturday. In results announced on Sunday, the opposition Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) won a plurality. The PDK is now rumored to be in talks about forming a grand coalition with its rival, the Democratic League of Kosovo, and PDK leader Hashim Thaci most likely will emerge as the prime minister. This result means three things: 1. There is no longer any question that Kosovo will unilaterally declare independence from Serbia, with or without international support. After the provisional break with Serbia in 1999, Kosovars pinned their hopes on Western intervention with a belief that their independence could come within a few years. But the West has discovered that it has other fish to fry, and the final break has been repeatedly pushed back. Various Kosovar politicians have said they will declare independence, but have wavered over whether they would wait for Western backing. Thaci is the one Kosovar leader who has actually named a date: Dec. 10, the day that the Troika -- Russia, the European Union and the United States -- have their next major meeting to discuss the issue. 2. Kosovars evidently are feeling feisty enough to put a former guerrilla leader in power. Though currently head of the opposition, Thaci is much more well known as the former political leader of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), the Albanian militant organization that Serbia accuses of killing thousands of Serbs and Albanians during the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s. In the KLA his nickname was "the Snake," because he was responsible for securing financial backing -- mostly from the West -- and for arming recruits. Though the KLA is officially disbanded, there has been an escalation in small-scale violence in the Balkans over the past few months as the negotiations have approached their break point. Thaci still holds much sway over those large pockets of Kosovars willing to fight to the end to gain their independence. 3. Thaci also could be -- and this is pure speculation at the moment -- capable of pulling the West's support back behind Pristina if it declares independence without a troika agreement. At the same time that Thaci was one of the top KLA leaders, he was also a negotiator with the West over Kosovar independence (in fact, he has taken credit for being one of the top negotiators who attained the provisional break from Serbia in 1999). Thaci was the one who rolled out the PR machine that led the West into the Kosovar conflict both politically and militarily. It remains to be seen whether he still has (or can muster) that kind of influence -- certainly, things have changed on the global stage since 1999 -- but the possibility should not be dismissed out of hand. The election sends a message to Belgrade and to the international community: Kosovo is ready to declare independence, with or without Western support -- and with the support of its own militant elements. It will be interesting to see how Serbia, Russia and the West respond. Related Headlines Kosovo: <http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=294385> The Real Flashpoint Aug 22, 2007 Serbia's <http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=288255> Choice May 08, 2007 Kosovo: <http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=298431> The Fuse on the Balkan Powder Keg Nov 16, 2007
