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BALKAN END-GAME? May 15th 2008 The pro-Europeans did well, but it will still be hard to form a new government THE partying went on late after Serbia's election on May 11th. Bucking the opinion polls, pro-European parties did better than expected, and the nationalists did worse. But the next morning brought the inevitable hangover. Voters have sharply altered the make-up of the next parliament, but left it split down the middle. Ljiljana Smajlovic, editor of POLITIKA, a daily, concludes that "Serbia is not going to be a stable or happy country in the next year." The polls had predicted that the Radicals, the main nationalist party, would get a third of the vote, as would the pro-European coalition of President Boris Tadic. In fact Mr Tadic's lot took 39% and the Radicals only 29%. The smaller nationalist party of Vojislav Kostunica, the outgoing prime minister, also did badly. But the Socialists, the party of the late dictator, Slobodan Milosevic, did well, making them kingmaker instead of Mr Kostunica. Several things affected voters at a late stage. On April 29th Serbia signed a stabilisation agreement with the European Union, usually the first step towards membership. More influential was the news that 17 European countries would no longer charge Serbs for visas; and that Fiat of Italy planned to invest EURO700m ($1.1 billion) in Zastava in Kragujevac. Fiat began making cars there in the 1950s. They now promise to create thousands of new jobs. Ms Smajlovic calls the deal with the EU "a bribe", but adds that Serbs do not care much. Resentment persists against EU countries that have recognised the independence of Kosovo, which Serbia still claims as its southern province. But more important was a fear that the door to the EU "might close if we don't move fast." The horse-trading over a new government will take weeks. What makes it harder is that local elections were held at the same time, so the talks involve municipal councils and the government of Vojvodina, a northern province, too. In the mix are lots of jobs on the boards of state companies, which bring patronage and cash. Ivica Dacic, the Socialist leader, is torn. If he backs a government led by Mr Tadic's party, he may transform his own into a respectable social-democratic one. But most of his elderly, conservative supporters cast their ballots in the belief that they were voting against Europe. "Every solution will be bizarre and awkward," suggests Braca Grubacic, a political analyst. Indeed, some mooted political bedfellows beggar belief. One permutation even has a small party of Muslim Bosniaks aligned with the Radicals, whose founder is on trial in The Hague for murdering and ethnically cleansing Bosniaks. If the Radicals manage, despite their poor performance, to form a government, Serbia's European aspirations will be put on hold. But if Mr Tadic succeeds, which seems marginally more likely, friends of the Balkans in the EU will receive a big fillip (see article[1]). They will argue that Serbia, Bosnia (which will soon sign a stability agreement like Serbia's), Montenegro and Albania should rapidly become formal candidates for membership; and that Macedonia, which is a candidate already, should be given a date for opening full negotiations. One fly in the ointment is Ratko Mladic, the former Bosnian Serb general indicted by The Hague war-crimes tribunal. Some countries, notably Belgium and the Netherlands, say Serbia should not be rewarded until he is found and sent for trial. But their opponents say the fate of millions, whose countries are surrounded by the EU, matters too much to leave them hostage to Mr Mladic. There is a lot still to play for in the western Balkans. -----
